U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March 2021

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that March crude oil production gained 1.401 million barrels per day, averaging 11.184 mmbd. This follows a drop of 1.273 mmb/d in February due to the freeze in Texas. The March 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.968 mmbd, a figure that was 216,000 lower than the actual 914 monthly estimate.

Crude

Gains in production were experienced in Texas (990,000), New Mexico (172,000), the Gulf of Mexico (107,000), Oklahoma (87,000), and North Dakota (14,000 b/d). Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March 2021" →

S&P 500 Post Fourth Straight Monthly Gain

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The S&P 500 rose slightly on Friday in light trading heading into the long weekend to post its fourth straight monthly gain amid growing optimism over the U.S. economic recovery.

The S&P 500 ended the session up +0.1% to 4,204.11, sitting just 0.8% from its all-time record high. The DOW gained 64.81 points or +.19% 34,529.45, and the NASDAQ inched up +0.1% to close at 13,748.74.

Both the DOW and the S&P 500 advanced +0.9% and +1.1% last week, respectively, with both indexes breaking a two-week losing streak. The NASDAQ rose +2% to post its best weekly performance since April 9. Continue reading "S&P 500 Post Fourth Straight Monthly Gain" →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 5/30/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The S&P 500 (analyzed here using SPY) extended the range forward this week, which, as noted, was the most likely scenario.

The inaction this week has “coiled the spring” in the market, and I would expect to see an increase of volatility next week. In terms of a forecast for this week, I can’t make one with confidence as the odds are about 50/50 right now in both directions as the market’s supply/demand forces are balanced right now.

There is little motivation with the indexes, so quiet to add risk this week, and I suspect we will see a bullish whipsaw before any retest of the range lows can occur.

Time to keep my powder dry and wait for one side or the other to commit. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

Can Silver Futures Crack $30?

Posted on by Mike Seery

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 27.48 an ounce while currently trading at 27.88, up about $0.40 for the week as prices have been stuck in a 2 week consolidation pattern.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 25.85 level, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop-loss under the 2 week low, which now stands at 27.26 on a closing basis only. The chart structure is outstanding as we are only an eyelash away from getting stopped out.

Silver prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains to the upside. I still think prices will crack the 30 level. I also have a bullish recommendation in the platinum market as I think that will join the party eventually.

I think the entire precious metal sector continues to move higher throughout 2021 as I will be looking at adding more contracts to the upside if prices break the 30 level, so keep a close eye on this market as we could be doubling up in next week's trade as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the July contract is trading higher for the 3rd consecutive session, up another 70 points at 119.25 after settling last Friday in New York at 117.95 as prices have now hit a 10-week high. Continue reading "Can Silver Futures Crack $30?" →

The Inevitable Rise In Rates

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Market Scare

A string of robust Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings spooked the markets as a harbinger for the inevitable rise in interest rates. As investors grapple with the prospect of downstream rate increases, pockets of vulnerabilities throughout the market have been exposed. The overall markets have been on a blistering bull run since the November 2020 presidential election cycle. The overall markets as assessed by any historical measure have reached stretched valuations with record risk appetite. As real inflation enters the fray, these frothy markets will come under pressure and possibly derail this raging bull market. Although rising rates may introduce some systemic risk, the financial cohort is poised to go higher. The confluence of rising rates, post-pandemic economic rebound, financially strong balance sheets, and a robust housing market will be tailwinds for the big banks.

Financials

The prospect of rising interest rates coupled with fantastic earnings have propelled bank stocks to all-high highs. Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS) have appreciated to all-time highs. Rising interest rates in combination with the highly disruptive COVID-19 backdrop abating has served as the foundation for this move higher. The big banks responded and evolved in the face of COVID-19 to the real possibility of widespread loan defaults, liquidity issues, ballooning credit card debt, and stressed mortgages. To exacerbate these COVID-19 impacts, interest rates, Federal Reserve actions, yield curve inversion, and liquidity heavily weighed on the sector. Continue reading "The Inevitable Rise In Rates" →