Marijuana ETFs are Moving

Since the elections in early November, marijuana stocks and marijuana ETFs have been moving higher at a healthy clip. Now may be a perfect time for investors who have been waiting to get into this industry but didn’t want to be too early.

The moves come after four States passed the legalization of recreational marijuana use, which now brings the total number of US States to 15 that allow citizens to consume marijuana in essentially the same manner that someone’s consumers alcohol.

Furthermore, 2 more States passed laws allowing marijuana to be used for medical purposes. Now the US has 35 States that allow medical marijuana usage.

Another catalyst is that with Vice President Joe Biden winning the White House, many believe the push for national level decriminalization of marijuana is more likely to occur. This is even though the Republicans still control the Senate.

Finally, as I have mentioned before, with the pandemic and massive budget deficits occurring all around the country, State and local governments, and even perhaps the Federal government may start looking at alternative ways to increase tax revenue. One easy avenue is to allow marijuana use and place a hefty tax on it, as the government already does with alcohol and tobacco sales. As things currently sit in most States, those that have not passed the legalization of recreational use would argue that marijuana is being sold; it’s just not being taxed. Most politicians would probably agree with that to some extent, and some would undoubtedly love to get some more tax money, especially during times like these. Continue reading "Marijuana ETFs are Moving"

Buy Setup For Gold, Two Paths For Silver

The plan posted at the end of November works amazingly well, so far as price accurately charts the preset pattern at least for the gold, which could offer a good trading opportunity soon.

Let us check the "King's" chart first to see what's happening.

Dollar Index

I switched to a smaller time frame to focus on the current leg down, as we saw on the chart before.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is building a slightly up-sloping sideways consolidation (orange channel). I think we can see another leg up to touch both the upside of the orange channel and the trendline resistance of the black dashed downtrend. This area around 91.5 would offer double resistance. Continue reading "Buy Setup For Gold, Two Paths For Silver"

S&P 500 Futures Point To Higher Prices

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 futures in the December contract is currently trading lower by 17 points at 3651, rallying off session lows as prices hit a one-week low.

If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I believe higher prices will continue, and if you are long a futures contract, I would continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 3592 as an exit strategy. However, tomorrow it will be raised to 3626 as the chart structure will turn outstanding; therefore, the monetary risk would be relatively low for such a historically volatile commodity.

The S&P 500 is still trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average. This trend remains higher despite the recent setback over the last couple of days blamed on profit-taking and overbought trading conditions as I still think higher prices are ahead. Money flows continue to enter the equity market as the IPO phenomenon continues as several tech companies have come about doubling or even tripling on their 1st day of trading. There is still a lot of pent-up demand, especially going into 2021 when the coronavirus vaccine will start to be distributed. I see no reason to be short stocks as trading with the path of least resistance is the most successful way to trade over time.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 24.25 an ounce while currently trading at 24.10 down slightly for the trading week still stuck in a tight 11-week consolidation pattern looking for some fresh news to push prices higher.

I'm sitting on the sidelines as I'm a trend trader and try to avoid choppy markets, and that's exactly what we are experiencing. I will still be recommending a bullish position if prices close above the critical 25.71 level, which could happen in the coming weeks as I still think historically speaking, silver looks cheap. Continue reading "S&P 500 Futures Point To Higher Prices"

Stock Market Ready For A Pause

Weeks after the Election Rally initiated a moderately strong upside breakout rally, our Custom Index charts suggest the US stock market may be ready for a brief pause in trending before any new trends continue. Global traders and investors jumped into the US stock market just days before the US elections expecting something big to take place. The rally that initiated just days before the US election pushed our Custom Index charts well into the upper range of the 2016 to 2018 upward sloping price channel. This suggests the US stock markets have ended the downward price reversion and are now attempting to extend into the upward price channel – attempting to resume the upward trending that started after the 2016 elections.

Weekly Smart Cash And Volatility Indexes

The Weekly Smart Cash Index, below, highlights the impressive rally recently and the upward sloping price channel that is back in play for price. The highlighted range of the upward sloping price channel is actually the lower half of the std deviation range of the 2016 to 2018 price channel. So, as of right now, the Smart Cash Index price level has yet to really breach the middle of this channel and is still only within the lower half of the channel. Still, the support near the lower boundary of this level has been retested two or three times over the past six months and held. This suggests the lower channel level (the lower heavy BLUE line) is now acting as moderate price support.

stock market

The speed of the recent upside price rally on this Smart Cash Index chart suggests that current price congestion may be an indication that the US stock market has reached a point where it will pause and stall a bit before attempting any new rally. From the recent lows near the end of October to the current highs, the current rally represents a 50% Fibonacci price expansion of the range from the March 2020 lows to the highs in August 2020. The 50% expansion range is a very common Fibonacci level that can typically prompt market price pauses or reversals. Continue reading "Stock Market Ready For A Pause"

Stocks End Week Lower On Stimulus Concerns

The stock market started this week with what looked like another record run, but things turned sour mid-week as COVID-19 infections continue to rise both in the US and globally. Adding to the uneasiness is Washington's inability to agree on a stimulus package and jobless claims numbers that continue to grow. Last week's report saw that number grow to 853,000, the highest total since Sept. 19.

Lawmakers seek to pass a bill before lifelines expire at the end of 2020, but disagreements over state and local stimulus, unemployment assistance, and stimulus checks still exist. Continue reading "Stocks End Week Lower On Stimulus Concerns"