The OPEC ministers are scheduled to meet December 5th in Geneva. Their non-OPEC partners will join them December 6th. As of this writing, reports are that Russia and Saudi Arabia are not yet pushing for deeper cuts in 2020 are likely to call for full compliance by all OPEC+ participants and extend the existing quotas scheduled to end in March through June.
However, developments in non-OPEC countries may require deeper cuts to prevent glut conditions. And a couple of surprises within OPEC may doom the group’s efforts. Saudi Aramco is promising a dividend payment to IPO shareholders in proportion to a $75 billion dividend for all Aramco shareholders and will pay the new shareholders their due regardless if it is unable to pay the government its share of the dividend in full. Therefore, the Kingdom may be faced with a major financial challenge in 2020.
Higher production forecasts for the U.S. are coming under increased scrutiny and are subject to a wide variety of opinions. The base case of the Energy Dept. is a rise of 1.0 million barrels in crude production from 12.29 to 13.29 million barrels per day. It also projects an increase of 680,000 barrels per day in petroleum liquids, mainly NGLs.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting a US increase in crude production of 1.2 million. But Goldman Sachs revised its forecast down to 600,000 b/d. And HIS Markit is even lower at 440,000 b/d. Continue reading "Oil Outlook For 2020 Appears Challenging For Saudi Aramco"
Are the financial markets not paying attention? Or is that a good thing?
I keep asking myself those questions while I watch the major U.S. stock market indexes soar to new heights on a regular basis, while bond prices retreat – and yields rise – after hitting crisis levels early in the year.
The markets are saying: everything is just fine. The economy is humming along, consumers are spending, everyone who wants one can get a job, but just in case, the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates low and monetary policy accommodative. How can things possibly get any better?
But are we getting a little too comfortable?
Stock prices are rising, and bond prices are falling even as the main Democrat presidential hopefuls try to top one another with the most profligate government giveaways they can think up – Medicare for All, free college tuition, student loan forgiveness, free health care for illegal aliens, reparations for slavery, you name it – while their peers in the House are trying desperately to drive President Trump from the White House, so they don’t have to face him on Election Day next year.
To say that there is a huge disconnect between the political world and the financial world is a huge understatement.
At some point, will investors look over this depressing – and rather scary – landscape and take their chips off the table? Or do they really believe that all of this silliness will eventually blow over and Trump – whom the financial markets seem to like, or at least are comfortable with – will arise victorious after the impeachment witch hunt plays itself out and the current field of Democrat presidential wannabes thins out? Continue reading "Ignorance Is Bliss"
Gold bugs will remember 2012 as the last year of hope that gold was still in its bull cycle as it managed to hold key support around 1550 into year-end. It should not be lost on us that here into year-end 2019 gold’s new bull cycle has risen to, and logically halted at, the very same former support that is now important resistance to a new bull market.
We anticipated this resistance in the summer, and although the up-turning Semi cycle of 2013 was logical to gold’s demise 7 years ago, that is no longer the case as Semiconductor leadership takes a new leg up in 2019. Why? Well, let’s explore just a few of the differences between then and now.
Difference #1: The Yield Curve
The post-crisis era into 2012 was “inflation all the way baby!” as so well stated by my friend, the late Jonathan Auerbach back in Q4 2008. It was monetary fire hoses all day every day and policy makers didn’t care who knew it. There was a major systemic meltdown of the previous inflation in play and of course, our heroes at the Fed fought that realized risk with more of what created it in the first place, balls-out inflationary policy.
The crowning achievement – and gold killer – of post-crisis policy was 2011’s Operation Twist and its stated mission of controlling the yield curve, as Twist’s agenda to buy long-term Treasury bonds and sell short-term Treasury bonds was the very essence of a flattener. That cannot be disputed. Bernanke kicked off the great flattening and gold was done for years to come. Continue reading "Today vs. 2012; Different This Time For Gold"
Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.73 a pound while currently trading at 12.74 unchanged for the trading week, continuing it's extremely low volatility.
I have been recommending two bullish positions with an average price of 12.67, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which now stands at 12.46. For Monday's trade, that will be raised to 12.51 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time because prices have been stuck in the mud.
Sugar is still trading slightly above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher as we need some fresh news to dictate short-term price action as the Brazilian Real has hit a 4 year low against the U.S dollar as that has a negative influence on prices.
The next major level of resistance stands at the 13.00 area. I will be looking at adding more contracts at that level because the stop-loss is so tight; therefore, the risk/reward is in your favor, so stay long.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW
Orange juice futures in the January contract settled last Friday at 100.50 while currently trading at 99.00 down about 150 points for the week as prices are still stuck in a tight four-week consolidation. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"
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