HUI Is Testing Support, XAU Is Yet To Try

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Much to my dismay, I’ve never covered these hot indices in my posts. I detected some interesting chart patterns as well as significant price actions and thought if it might be interesting to cover and discuss.

These indices have a long trading history as well as great companies that are tracked by each index. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) are the two most watched gold indices on the market. The main difference between them is that the HUI Index’s components are only gold producers (17 companies) whereas the XAU Index includes both gold and silver miners (30 names). Below is the table of listings for comparison.

Table 1. Current Composition of Indices

XAU and HUI Index Listings

I highlighted the matching companies in green so you can easily see the difference between the indices. It is evident that the HUI index almost entirely sits in the XAU index (15 out of 17 names are in), the latter in its turn covers broader the precious metals market. Let us see in the charts below their dynamics and possible price action. Continue reading "HUI Is Testing Support, XAU Is Yet To Try"

The Numbers Add Up to Vindication for a Cautious Gold Bull...

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the importance of caution and timing in gold investment.

Back in early March, with the HUI screaming along north of 150, I published "Patiently Climbing Aboard the New Golden Bull," in which I opined that we had entered a brand-spanking-new bull market in precious metals and related equities. But I also noted that, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 85 on the daily SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and approaching 80 on the daily NYSE.Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), the short-term outlook was less than appealing, while the intermediate and long-term outlook was unequivocally bullish for the first time in five long years. Continue reading "The Numbers Add Up to Vindication for a Cautious Gold Bull..."

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Precious Metals Every Bit as Explosive as Secretariat at the Belmont Stakes

The charts tell the story, says precious metals expert Michael Ballanger, adding that the mining and metals market have the forward momentum of Secretariat as he clinched the Triple Crown.

Today's missive is going to be exceedingly "chart-infected," because many times a picture is worth one thousand words, especially in the case of the precious metals markets these days. I put on a 2% hedge prior to the FOMC meetings and the Wednesday press release and have since removed it, taking a small hit versus the mindboggling leap in my GDXJ position and associated advances in the juniors (KAM.V over $2). That's the beauty of a "hedge" versus a "short," and that is precisely what I have been thinking since the COT moved above 200,000 Commercial net shorts a few weeks back, with the gold and silver prices refusing to retrace.

One look at the chart below and you are immediately struck by the "shock and awe" campaign of "no corrections," where the market doesn't allow traders to buy back their favorite mining positions at prices representing only the meagerest of percentage pullbacks. In fact, after nearly 40 years of trading the miners, I have never ever seen a market with such awesome power behind it that is truly such a wonder to behold. The HUI has exploded out of the post-FOMC gate like Secretariat at the Belmont Stakes in 1973. (If you ever want to see an incredible feat by a horse, watch the Youtube clip of the race that clinched the first Triple Crown in 25 years AND was won by an incredible 25 lengths.) Just as that horse left the pack at the halfway point of the race, precious metals are massively outperforming the SP by a vast margin, and are forcing the money managers to be dragged into the market, teeth clenched and fingers clawing the ground. Continue reading "Precious Metals Every Bit as Explosive as Secretariat at the Belmont Stakes"

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Are We or Are We Not in a New Gold Bull Market?

Technical analyst Jack Chan has examined the charts and says that if we are in a new bull market, prices in both gold and gold equities should begin to pull back and consolidate soon.

As suggested in our previous analysis, we need to see a couple of things happening in order to welcome a potential new bull market:

#1. COT data to return to bull market values.
#2. Gold price to exceed the 2015 high at $1,302.

Nobody can predict when this will happen, but we can prepare by looking at the past bull and bear markets so that we can recognize a new bull market if and when it materializes.

The Bear Market From 1981 to 2001

Gold Spot Price

After topping above $700 in 1981, gold lost more than half of its value in just over a year, followed by two sharp bear market rallies, and then died a slow death over the next 12 years. Continue reading "Are We or Are We Not in a New Gold Bull Market?"

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Jack Chan Sees New Major Buy Signal For Gold But Is Patient

Technical analyst Jack Chan has examined the charts and says the gold sector is on a new major buy signal, which could signal a new bull market. But he is patiently waiting for confirmation.

Chart 1

The gold sector is on a new major buy signal, therefore opening the opportunity of a new bull market. However, Commitment of Traders (COT) data remains in bear market values and is now at levels of previous tops. I remain patient and wait for confirmation, which is when speculation according to published COT data has returned to bull market values, and the 2015 high in gold prices near $1,300/oz is exceeded to the upside.

$HUI is on a new long-term buy signal, ending the sell signal from early 2012. (See chart above).

Long-term signals can last for months and years and are more suitable for the long-term investors. Continue reading "Jack Chan Sees New Major Buy Signal For Gold But Is Patient"

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