INO.com Trader's Blog - Expert analysis, charts, trading tips and videos.

HealthEquity - Compelling Buy Heading Into Q4 Earnings

Posted on March 2, 2019March 1, 2019 by Noah Kiedrowski

HealthEquity Inc. (HQY) was not immune to the market wide sell-off in equities during the fourth quarter of 2018 which disproportionally impacted growth stocks with high price-to-earnings multiples. The market quickly lost its appetite for these richly valued high-growth stocks with steep valuations. Health Equity’s rich valuation became a concern to me during the fourth quarter as its growth albeit double-digits, did not justify its sky-high valuation. This concern prompted me to write a piece discussing this concern and warned that the “current valuation is rich in an already frothy market thus caution at these levels is wise” prior to the stock selling off from $101 to $47 shedding 53% of its market value during the fourth quarter of 2018. The company continues to post quarter after quarter of double-digit growth in revenue and EPS without any debt on the balance sheet thus has been rewarded with a rich valuation as a function of its impressive growth and total addressable market. This high price-to-earnings multiple came under fire as the market moved into a risk-averse environment in the fourth quarter. As high-flying equities came down in the broader market sell-off, Health Equity lost over half of its market capitalization and erased all of its gains in 2018. Now that the market correction has passed and the company continues to post great quarterly growth along with enhancing its growth profile, the valuation is now compelling moving into its Q4 earnings and the stock is still well off its highs for a long-term investment.

Addressable Market and Market Position

On the fundamental level, the company is an intermediary servicing the secular growth Health Savings Account (HSA) space that’s largely independent of legislative actions, drug pricing, rising insurance costs while not playing any role in the pharmaceutical supply chain. The company manages funds allocated for medical, dental and vision expenses that are deducted on a pre-tax basis and deposited into a dedicated HSA account. The HSA space has grown in popularity as corporate adoption has allowed access to these plans in conjunction with consumer awareness. Continue reading "HealthEquity - Compelling Buy Heading Into Q4 Earnings" →

Best Start To The Year Since 1991

Posted on March 1, 2019 by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. That's right, the stock market is of off to a roaring start to the year and it is, in fact, the best start for the S&P 500 since 1991. The S&P 500 posted a gain of +2.9% for February following a gain of +7.9% in January. That's helping put December in the rearview mirror for many traders.

Not to be outdone the NASDAQ closed out the month with a 10-week winning streak, it's longest such weekly streak since 1999. On a monthly level, it posted a positive gain of +3.4% for February, backing up the +9.7% gain in January.

Then we come to the DOW which opened March trading up about 270 pts before backing off that high. The DOW posted a monthly gain of +3.6% in February continuing its positive momentum from January where it posted a +7% gain.

The U.S. Dollar will end the week in negative territory losing -.13%, but on a monthly level, it was able to post a gain of +.73% erasing the January loss of -.49%. Continue reading "Best Start To The Year Since 1991" →

Saudi Arabia's "Mini Oil Embargo" May Backfire

Posted on March 1, 2019February 28, 2019 by Robert Boslego

On October 20, 1973, Saudi King Faisal announced KSA was joining in an oil embargo against the United States and Europe in favor of the Arab position in the Yom Kippur War. In an interview with international media, King Faisal said:

“America's complete Israeli support against the Arabs makes it extremely difficult for us to continue to supply the United States with oil, or even remain friends with the United States."

The price of oil quadrupled in short order, a few months. The oil shortage in America was managed by gasoline rationing by President Nixon. Drivers could buy gasoline on “odd” or “even” days, depending on the last digit of their license plate. There was also a maximum dollar amount set on purchases of $10. Motorists often had to wait in line for an hour to buy gas.

The economic impact on the U.S. and the world economy was devasting. It caused a massive recession in 1974-75, even though the embargo was lifted in March 1974. The Saudis and other OPEC producers learned how “inelastic” (i.e., non-responsive to price) gasoline demand was and their ability to stuff their coffers even with small cuts to production. Continue reading "Saudi Arabia's "Mini Oil Embargo" May Backfire" →

China, North Korea And The Fed Weigh On Market

Posted on February 27, 2019 by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The week had started on high note extending last weeks gains and pushing the NASDAQ high enough to trigger a new green monthly Trade Triangle at 7,566.93. In fact, both the DOW and S&P 500 were close to getting their respective monthly Trade Triangles in early trading before they started to slide lower in Monday afternoon trading.

Stocks fell Wednesday as traders grappled with key testimonies on U.S.-China trade relations, Federal Reserve monetary policy and a host of geopolitical issues.

Stocks fell to their lows of the session as U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer hinted that a trade deal was not yet certain, saying that any agreement would need to be more than just purchases by China. The deal would need to be specific and include a matter of enforcement, he said. Lighthizer also noted that it would be a "long process" to implement any deal agreed upon in March. Lighthizer was testifying in front of the House Ways and Means committee. Trade relations between the U.S. and China lowered this week after President Donald Trump pushed back a deadline on adding additional tariffs on Chinese goods. Continue reading "China, North Korea And The Fed Weigh On Market" →

Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least

Posted on February 26, 2019 by The INO.com Team

Over in the gold patch, things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right-minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence. Wednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.

In the very few days immediately before that $20/oz. pullback the gold “community” threw itself a gathering of the bullish clans. On just a quick look around the gold websites, some quotes popped out from 2 days before the pullback and one day before Wednesday’s reversal. It’s crickets no more… Continue reading "Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least" →

Addressable Market and Market Position

It’s not goodbye, it’s hello Magnifi!