Author: The INO.com Team

China, North Korea And The Fed Weigh On Market

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The week had started on high note extending last weeks gains and pushing the NASDAQ high enough to trigger a new green monthly Trade Triangle at 7,566.93. In fact, both the DOW and S&P 500 were close to getting their respective monthly Trade Triangles in early trading before they started to slide lower in Monday afternoon trading.

Stocks fell Wednesday as traders grappled with key testimonies on U.S.-China trade relations, Federal Reserve monetary policy and a host of geopolitical issues.

Stocks fell to their lows of the session as U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer hinted that a trade deal was not yet certain, saying that any agreement would need to be more than just purchases by China. The deal would need to be specific and include a matter of enforcement, he said. Lighthizer also noted that it would be a "long process" to implement any deal agreed upon in March. Lighthizer was testifying in front of the House Ways and Means committee. Trade relations between the U.S. and China lowered this week after President Donald Trump pushed back a deadline on adding additional tariffs on Chinese goods. Continue reading "China, North Korea And The Fed Weigh On Market" →

Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Over in the gold patch, things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right-minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence. Wednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.

In the very few days immediately before that $20/oz. pullback the gold “community” threw itself a gathering of the bullish clans. On just a quick look around the gold websites, some quotes popped out from 2 days before the pullback and one day before Wednesday’s reversal. It’s crickets no more… Continue reading "Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 is trading at 2789 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 2777 up another 12 points hovering near a 12-week high as the bullish momentum is continuing to get stronger. I do not have any recommendations in the equity markets, but I do believe higher prices are ahead as you have to remember the Federal Reserve now looks like they will not raise interest rates and that's another fundamental bullish factor towards stock prices. The next major level of resistance is around 2820 / 2825 and if that is broken, I would think prices will hit all-time highs once again as I remain bullish the equity market as I see no reason to be short. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend is to the upside as the U.S. economy is doing exceptionally well as I shake my head and wonder what the heck happened in December when stock and oil prices plummeted only the rebound sharply in 2019. If you take a look at the S&P 500 as a whole it's only trading at about 16 times earnings which historically speaking is not that expensive as this is not a bubble in my opinion while still having room to run to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

DOW Cracks 26,000 For First Time Since November

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The DOW cracks 26,000 for the first time since November as the U.S. and China wrapped up another round of trade talks which has left investors increasingly more hopeful a deal will be struck soon. The move higher by the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have put new green monthly Trade Triangles within reach for all three major indexes next week. As it stands right now the DOW needs to trade above 26,277.82, the S&P 500 above 2,815.15 and the NASDAQ needs to top 7,566.93 for the new green monthly Trade Triangles to trigger.

The DOW and NASDAQ are both going to post weekly gains north of +.50% marking the ninth straight week of gains, meanwhile, the S&P 500 is sitting just shy of a +.6% gain at +.55% and will post its fourth straight week of gains.

DOW Cracks 26,000

The U.S. Dollar slipped into negative territory losing -.47% making this the first weekly loss in three weeks. The move lower can be directly related to the U.S. - China trade talks as President Trump is set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He later on Friday. The meeting comes after a U.S. delegation met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week. Continue reading "DOW Cracks 26,000 For First Time Since November" →

January Market Rebound Provides 100% Options Win Rate

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Previously, I authored a piece covering options trading and the mechanics behind long-term successful options trading to generate high probability win rates for consistent premium income. I provided empirical data via 100 options trades during the market wide sell-off in Q4 of 2018 where the Dow and S&P 500 erased all of its gains while turning negative for the year and posting their worse December since the Great Depression in 1931. Despite this negative backdrop, I was able to successfully close 80% of my trades at a profit, demonstrating the resiliency of high probability options trading regardless of market condition. These trading mechanics resulted in a total portfolio return of -5.9% against the S&P 500 return of -14.0% in Q4 of 2018, outperforming the broader index by a wide margin.

Since then, the month of January presented the polar opposite market scenario with the S&P closing out the best January in over 30 years. Maintaining the same trading mechanics deployed in Q4 of 2018 into January produced a portfolio return of 9.26% against the S&P 500 return of 7.87%, outperforming the index by a healthy margin. This seesaw from a negative to a positive market backdrop provided unique opportunities to capitalize on option trading via capturing a higher percentage of premium income, closing contracts early in the option lifecycle and relinquishing previously assigned contracts, which allowed the repurposing of capital for further options trading. In January, I was able to achieve a 100% options win rate by closing 30 out of 30 option contracts while maintaining capital liquidity.

Terse Overview

Options trading can be a fantastic avenue to mitigate risk; provide consistent income, lower cost basis of underlying stock positions and hedge against market movements while maintaining liquidity. Risk mitigation is particularly important given the market wide melt-down during Q4 of 2018. Maintaining liquidity via maintaining cash on hand to engage in covered put option selling is a great way to collect monthly income via premium selling. Heeding critical variables such as implied volatility, implied volatility percentile and probability, one can optimize option selling to yield a high probability win rate over the long term given enough trade occurrences. Continue reading "January Market Rebound Provides 100% Options Win Rate" →