Which Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.

COVID Shifts Global Cycles Faster and Broader Trends

Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.

Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market. Continue reading "Which Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?" →

Screening Key Technicals To Select Option Trade Types

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Controlling portfolio beta, which measures overall systemic risk of a portfolio compared to the market, on the whole, is essential as these markets continue to break record high after record high with violent pullbacks. The month of September was a prime example as the markets pushed to new all-time highs early in the month then suffered a deep sell-off to only bounce back to new record highs in October. Controlling beta while generating in-line or superior returns relative to the market is the goal with an options-based portfolio. A beta-controlled portfolio can be achieved via a blended options-based approach where ~50% cash is held in conjunction with long index-based equities and an options component. Options alone cannot be the sole driver of portfolio appreciation; however, options can play a critical component in the overall portfolio construction to control beta.

Generating consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing return on capital is the core of an options-based/beta-controlled portfolio strategy. Options can enable smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. Options enable the possibility to generate consistent monthly income in a high probability manner in various market scenarios. An options-based portfolio provides durability and resiliency to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk via a beta-controlled manner. Using basic technical indicators and key dates can aid in trade type selection such as covered calls, put spreads, call spreads, or iron condors (Figures 1 and 2). Continue reading "Screening Key Technicals To Select Option Trade Types" →

Commodity Prices Hit 7-Year High Amid New Bull Run

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The Refinitiv/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB index) is a commodity futures price index. It was well known under the name Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index before renaming. The CRB index is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 items as quoted on the NYMEX, CBOT, LME, CME, and COMEX exchanges within four following groups:

    • Petroleum-based products (based on their importance to global trade, always make up 33% of the weightings)
    • Liquid assets
    • Highly liquid assets
    • Diverse commodities

It includes aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas, and wheat.

More than four years ago, I shared with you a big map of the CRB index with a long-term outlook. (Original chart is below) Continue reading "Commodity Prices Hit 7-Year High Amid New Bull Run" →

Is Bitcoin An Inflation Hedge? Maybe...

Posted on by Wayne Burritt

I don't have to tell you that no matter what economic stat you're interested in, the belle of the ball is inflation. It's the one that everyone loves to talk about. It's the one that politicians and talking heads like to worry you about. And it's the one that is responsible for a ton of real-world economic horror stories.

And right now, it stands a mind-boggling 5.4% annual rate, way above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%.

So, as a Bitcoin and blockchain enthusiast, is there something that maybe crypto can do for us as we navigate through increasing inflation?

You bet. And I'm about to tell you why.

Yes, Inflation Is Too High

If you're a fan of moderate inflation, you're probably not feeling great right now. Prices are at levels that haven't been seen in decades.

In fact, right now, inflation stands at an annual rate of 5.4% in September, up from 5.3% in August. And we haven't seen these kinds of levels in a long time. See for yourself... Continue reading "Is Bitcoin An Inflation Hedge? Maybe..." →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 11/14/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

As the stimulus injection from the Fed loses its "oomph," the market had a flat and quiet week. Now that the "drug" of stimulus was worn off, we can watch to see what true organic supply/demand pressures are left in the market.

The problem with these stimulus rallies is that it creates a "reset" in the cycles that I track and measure, which allow me to forecast price moves with accuracy. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →