Is Platinum A Runaway Train?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

It looks like my post titled "Platinum Could Rocket To $1912" published in November 2019 could turn prophetic as the price of platinum price is moving quickly in the direction of the called target. The majority of readers supported this idea at that time, although with a small margin.

Below is that very chart where I shared the global structure for the large complex correction in the platinum market.

Platinum
Chart courtesy of stooq.com

To remind you, the idea was that leg 2 to the upside (black up arrow) should complete the "joint" between large red legs to the downside. It was thought to retest the top of leg 1 above $1900. The price was at $890 then. Continue reading "Is Platinum A Runaway Train?" →

Yellen Joins The Party

Posted on by George Yacik

When then-President-Elect Joe Biden nominated Janet Yellen to be his Treasury secretary last month, the markets rejoiced. The former Federal Reserve chair was a known quantity, and investors hate uncertainty – they knew what they were getting. Even better, they liked what they were getting—a monetary dove who favors low-interest rates and supports an interventionist government and Fed. While she wouldn't be on the Fed in her new role, she still holds the same views.

Moreover, since she is Jerome Powell's immediate predecessor, and they both worked together on the Fed for several years, it was pretty much a given that the two will work closely and harmoniously together for the good of the country, as the times demand.

But the markets were also relieved that Biden did not bow to the so-called progressives on the extreme left of his party and pick someone more to their liking, instead choosing someone with safe, relatively moderate views that both parties could support – as indeed they did, by an 84-15 Senate vote. In other words, Biden wanted – and the markets demanded – an adult in the room, and that's what they got with Yellen.

Or did they? Continue reading "Yellen Joins The Party" →

Will Valentine's Day Spoil Cocoa Futures?

Posted on by Mike Seery

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 2472 while currently trading at 2450, down slightly for the week still stuck in an 8-week consolidation pattern looking to break out on some from fresh fundamental news.

Fundamentally speaking, the concern that global cocoa demand will remain weak despite the Ivory Coast government's action to cut prices to boost sales.

Global chocolate demand concerns are negative for cocoa prices. Concerns have increased that Valentine's Day chocolate sales could fall from last year as tighter social distancing rules from the Covid pandemic delay a recovery in chocolate demand.

Cocoa prices are trading slightly below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned to the downside. I think prices are just digesting the massive run up in price that we witnessed in November. Cocoa and coffee are the weakest commodities unable to join the rest of the agricultural markets to the upside, so be patient and wait for a trend to develop as trading in a choppy market is extremely difficult over time, so sit on the sidelines.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the March contract is currently trading lower by 4 points at 3908 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 3880, continuing its bullish momentum. This is a strong demand market as investors continue to put money into the entire equity market, especially the Nasdaq-100, which is at an all-time high once again. Continue reading "Will Valentine's Day Spoil Cocoa Futures?" →

Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Corrections in Gold and Gold Stocks are completely normal in an inflationary macro market phase.

Every week I notice the agony ratcheting up incrementally. While the rest of the casino takes off to the speculative heavens, gold sits on its heavy ass and the gold miners go nowhere in a downward-biased perma-correction. Or so it seems. It’s all normal and I’ll explain why.

First of all, it is not healthy to be railing against unseen nefarious manipulative interests. That is emotion and emotion has to be kept out of it (and yes, I get as aggravated as the next guy sometimes, but it cannot affect your plan or you will be the victim, the mark). You have to take what the market gives you and roll with it. All markets are manipulated when you consider that the greatest manipulation of all is courtesy of the Federal Reserve, implementing it's MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), err, that is TMM (Total Market Manipulation) toward desired ends.

The primary tool in that manipulation is inflation. The oldest trick in the Fed’s book. But they can only inflate under cover of a deflationary macro and the 2020 COVID-crash made that the story and as yet it’s a condition that keeps on giving license to the inflators. But very likely sometime in 2021, our indicators will signal a failure into another deflationary liquidation or a more intense inflationary problem, neither of which would be positive for the economy. Continue reading "Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal" →

Records, Records and More Records

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Stocks will end this record-setting week at or near record levels, with the S&P 500 gaining +.9% for the week, the DOW +.8%, and the NASDAQ outperforming with a gain of +1.4%. The records set this week by the three main indexes are as follows, S&P 500 - 1,931.50, DOW - 31,543.82, and the NASDAQ - 14,109.12.

On a weekly level, the market started hot on Monday but has steadily cooled off into the close on Friday after the record levels were achieved. As we head into the finale, the S&P 500 is looking at a daily gain of roughly +.10, the DOW has been waffling between gains and losses and is down about -.11% as I recorded this video, and the NASDAQ is up the same as the S&P 500 with an increase of +.10%. Continue reading "Records, Records and More Records" →