In the previous Gold & Silver update I warned you about the possible correction ahead. Indeed, both top metals showed weakness, but I didn’t think it would be that severe as we quickly reached seemingly distant supports both in gold and silver. Later I shared with you my concerns about golds outlook as the Fed starts cutting its massive balance sheet this month. This could be a real game changer as market wizards call for another perfect storm for the financial markets. In the charts below I try to model this change for you.
I would like to start with the U.S. 10-year Treasury notes (UST) chart as this instrument has a strong relationship with gold, which I already showed you in August.
Chart 1. U.S. 10-year Treasury Notes Daily: Bear Flag Works Out
In my previous Gold & Silver post published earlier this month, I promised to update a long-term chart of Gold as I observed some interesting price behavior in a related instrument. But before I do that, let me speak about the Fed’s decision last Wednesday and that “related to gold” instrument first.
The positive dynamics of the US economy underpinned the Fed’s decision to finally start to trim its huge balance sheet next month, besides that there is a big chance of another rate hike this December. It wasn’t a shock to the market, and some big players already started their game weeks before the Fed moved from rhetoric to action.
The Fed’s decision could have a double impact on US interest rates as falling US Treasury notes increase the yields, and the impending rate hike could secure that situation. I was writing about the high possibility of this almost a month ago and last Wednesday we received a first-hand confirmation from the Fed. Continue reading "Fed Takes On Gold Unintentionally"→
The U.S. dollar is the primary benchmark for the expense of the time value of the money around the world. It affects all asset classes, and I want to analyze it to see if the speculation about the coming cycle of the rise in interest rates is valid or not.
The wise trader once said; “if you want to know the market trend just squeeze the chart to see the perspective.” I used that advice to focus on the long-term perspective, and in this post, I would like to share the result of my research in the three graphs below.
Chart 1. The Yield Of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes Quarterly: Downtrend Could Be Over Soon
Chart courtesy of stooq.com
The chart above shows the history of the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury notes (UST) from 1980 to present day. I chose that period to highlight the whole move down of the yield from the top in 1981 at the 15.84%. I chose this instrument as it is a benchmark showing investors’ sentiment about the future interest rates for the U.S. dollar. Continue reading "Gold And The Era Of Rising Interest Rates"→
President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration won’t take place for two more months and yet his proposed economic plan is already sending ripples through markets. Treasury notes and bonds are tanking, stocks are rallying and the Dollar Index has surged to highs not seen in more than 10 years. All of which is in utter contrast to what analysts had expected to occur post-Trump’s election, and which seemingly presents a paradox of sorts. Trump’s two economic focal points are aggressive tax cuts and massive infrastructure investment. Both are expected, according to The Office of Management and Budget, to push the US debt burden by roughly 25% of GDP by 2020. And yet, in conjunction with those expectations, the Dollar is gaining.
Naturally, the most obvious reason would be that higher deficits will lead to inflation and, consequently, would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. But that is a consequence rather than a reason. The real reason is that both the US economy and the US banking system have been ripe for higher rates for a while, and Trump’s plans for the economy, or “Trumponomics” as we like to call it, is merely a catalyst for an already strong economy. Continue reading "Trumponomics, Bonds And The Dollar"→
Exactly 19 days ago, the Dow was trading at a new all-time high. So how did everything become unraveled in less than three weeks?
In my humble opinion, the complacency that was in most investors' minds was overcome with uncertainty and distrust.
It arrived in the form of three waves.
The first wave was ISIS and their rapid takeover of key areas in the Middle East. This uncertainty was exacerbated and emboldened ISIS further when the president of the United States stated on national TV that "we have no strategy" to deal with ISIS. It doesn't matter if you are a Democrat or a Republican - you do not expect to hear the president make a statement like that.
The second wave came with the news that Ebola had reached across West Africa to the shores of the United States. This scary news should not have been a problem, however it became a major problem with the conflicting stories about how a nurse who was in fully dressed in protected clothing contracted this deadly disease. To make matters worse, this morning we hear of another nurse who was diagnosed with Ebola. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) so far seem ill-prepared. Not leveling with the American people about what is going on just adds another layer of uncertainty and distrust in government. Continue reading "Did ISIS, Ebola, And The White House Crash The Market?"→