Tag: chart analysis

Gold & Silver: US Dollar Could Spoil Santa Claus Rally

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Here we are on the final track of the year, and investors hope for the traditional Santa Claus rally in the precious metals sector. This euphoria of the anticipated strength based on the current move up could be spoiled if this pattern would emerge in the US dollar index (DXY).

Chart 1. US Dollar Index Daily: Triangle

US Dollar
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The disappointing data of US non-farm payrolls released last Friday couldn’t damage the US dollar as it kept above the former trough established on the 4th of December at 96.30. The first reaction in the market was a USD sell-off against all major currencies, but it was short-lived, and none of the former extremes were breached. This made me focus on the Dollar Index chart to see if there is some pattern or trading setup has been shaping amid this unusual market behavior. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: US Dollar Could Spoil Santa Claus Rally" →

Gold Stocks Couldn't Beat Gold

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

One year ago I shared with you the similar dynamics of the top gold stocks ranked by ROE. There were five tickers: ABX (Barrick Gold), SBGL (Sibanye Gold), IAG (IAMGOLD), GSS (Golden Star) and HMY (Harmony Gold Mining). I want to update on their price dynamics to show you which of your bets played out after one year.

Before we get down to the results, below is the distribution of votes for each stock for you to recall those bets.

gold stocks

For the second time in a row, the majority of you bet on Barrick Gold (ABX) despite that this company was among the top losers a year ago. Another interesting fact is that the Golden Star (GSS) was the least favorite, although it had shown the best result last time. This is what we call mysterious investors’ sentiment.

Chart 1. Gold Stocks Vs. Gold: Unmatched

gold stocks
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "Gold Stocks Couldn't Beat Gold" →

Gold Extends Consolidation Giving Silver Another Chance

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Gold and silver exchange leading roles in the market quite often, especially on the short-term charts. Last time I wrote about it silver saved gold from collapse at the start of this month. The white metal unexpectedly bounced off the earlier low reversing the drop of the yellow metal.

This time gold took the lead as its failure to break below the Bear Flag let silver lick its wounds and return above the $14 handle.

Both metals are still trapped in the middle of the range set by the earlier heavy drop, which first occurred in gold and then it was repeated in the silver market. In this post, I have focused on the local structure as the bigger picture remains unchanged.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: 3rd Leg Up Is Uncommon But Possible

consolidation
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The top metal couldn’t break below the trendline support of a Bear Flag (orange) and then quickly restored most of its losses coming back above $1200. It is interesting that the forecasted drop unfolded quite differently in each metal. Silver tagged the earlier trough, but gold failed even to breach the vertically sloped trendline. It looks like strong demand appeared right at the round number of the gold price in the $1200 area. Continue reading "Gold Extends Consolidation Giving Silver Another Chance" →

Gold & Silver: Falling Knives

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Silver has failed to complete the second leg up as it couldn’t break above the August top of $15. It is interesting that this misbehavior of the white metal didn’t surprise you as the majority of you had bet last week that silver would fail and drop below $14.2. It’s impressive how accurate your forecast was!

In this post, I would like to update downside targets as we should be prepared for the resumption of the drop in metals after pullbacks have been finished.

Chart 1. Gold Weekly: Bear Flag Targets Bottom

falling knives
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Last week I reminded you of the big range of trade, which requires the retest of the downside of the range to complete the setup. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Falling Knives" →

Positive Implications For Gold Miners If Crude Oil Breaks Down

Posted on by The INO.com Team

It’s an over obsessed upon commodity, previously hyped for its (Hubbert’s) “peak” status by “experts” like T Boone Pickens and a whole clown show of promoters.

Now WTI Crude Oil has reached a thick resistance zone (as managed in NFTRH for the last couple of years) and may be breaking down from a peak of a whole other kind. Here is the monthly chart we use.

Gold Miners

It is preliminary, and one weekend OPEC jawbone could put oil back up in the consolidation. But as of now the price has ticked below the previous 2018 low to close the week. It is not a good look… unless you’re a gold bug, that is. More on that later. Continue reading "Positive Implications For Gold Miners If Crude Oil Breaks Down" →