Tag: technical analysis

Our May Stock Market Prediction - Part 1

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

As we enter the final stage of our stock market prediction from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data. We hope that many of you remember out predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally? The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks.

As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions made by our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system that originated from December 2017 going all the way forward through to the end of May 2019. Can you imagine what it would be like to have a tool that could show you what is likely to happen going forward 6 months, 12 months or even 24 months into the future? Well, that is what we have with the ADL predictive price modeling system and we are going to show you how well it has been able to pick the future of the markets for the past 15+ months. Here we go.

At this point, we are going to highlight our earlier predictions (all of 2018 and into Q1/Q2 of 2019) and show you what the market has done since these calls were made back in September 2018. Pay attention to this Weekly ES (S&P 500 chart) and pay attention to the YELLOW ARROWS on this chart. We have highlighted key predictive price modeling points with these yellow arrows on the chart to show you what our ADL predictive modeling system suggested would happen back in December 2017. Continue reading "Our May Stock Market Prediction - Part 1" →

Copper Gives Bears Another Chance

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last July I posted a monthly chart of copper futures to show you that the earlier move up had been completed when the price hit the accurately predicted $3.32 level and we have entered a bearish mode.

The big short game was set between the $3.32 and $1.94 extremes. The earlier post was calling for the price of copper to retest the former valley of $1.94. Below are the poll results with your expectations recorded in July of 2018. Again, I am very thankful for your stable activity!

Copper

The majority of you agreed with my opinion that the copper could revisit the former low of $1.94. 2018 finished at the $2.64 mark, which is far away from the target and below I will show you why and what could be the next for copper. Continue reading "Copper Gives Bears Another Chance" →

A Precious Metals Update

Posted on by The INO.com Team

I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark, you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.

So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.

Precious Metals Update

First off, Commitments of Traders data are only available through 12.31.18 as a result of the government shutdown. So we are flying somewhat blind from that perspective. At the end of December, the CoT for gold and silver were well on their way to a bearish alignment. Have they maxed their trends and reversed in the meantime? It is quite possible, especially since the metals have taken pullbacks (within their intermediate uptrends) recently.

We have been following an analog to 2001, which saw SPX break down below its 50 & 200 day moving averages as HUI began its bull market. What’s more, SPX then tested its breakdown in Q1 2001… Continue reading "A Precious Metals Update" →

How Far Could Crude Oil Go?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The price of crude oil closed above the earlier top of $54.6 last Friday to confirm the reversal to the upside. So, is it the right time to find out how far we can go with it?

At the end of last May, I posted an early warning of the imminent crash of crude oil price amid the mass media euphoria from the dream of the $100 price tag per barrel, which was a good contrarian indicator. The price of WTI finally dropped last October after it broke long-term support.

I am very grateful to you as you were very active on the poll where I asked you to share your expectations about the crude oil price by the end of 2018. Below are the results of it.

wti crude oil futures

As we can see most of you were ready for the drop of the oil price in the next lower range between $50 and $70 marks, although there were oil optimists in second place, who bet on the price to be in the $70-$90 range. Only those whose bets ranked the third ($30-$50) turned out to be right as oil finished the previous year at $45.8 after hitting the $42 area the day before Christmas.

In this post, I would like to show you some historical similarities, which could help us to understand how deeply the current pullback could go. Let’s start with the bigger chart. Continue reading "How Far Could Crude Oil Go?" →

Silver Update: 1980s Vs. The 2010s

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Silver surprised us with a strong Santa Claus Rally. It woke up like an ancient volcano and with a booming eruption. Before that, we proclaimed silver to be dormant compared to a vigorous rival, gold.

Everything changed at the end of 2018 as gold gained 10% from the lows and a weak silver tried to catch up to make the same profit at the very end. Bargain hunters couldn’t pass by this clear market distortion and took their chance to book a nice profit of around 4%.

In my earlier post I updated the medium term gold chart for you. Last time I updated the big chart of silver in October, which was titled dramatically “Fly Or Die” as submissive behavior of silver was leaving less and less hope for investors.

This time I am going to update the silver chart, but using a different approach. You are already familiar with it as I used historical clones with gold and silver before. The latter one was successful. This time it will be extended as I will use two clones instead of one from different historical periods so you can choose.

Let’s start with the distant one.

Chart 1. Silver Futures Monthly: Echo Of the 80s

Silver Update
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This chart was built in a high resolution, and I recommend you to click on it to open in a new window to see a larger image in details, especially in the right clone (orange box). Continue reading "Silver Update: 1980s Vs. The 2010s" →