Category: INO.com Contributors

Will Orange Juice Futures Feel The Squeeze?

Posted on by Mike Seery

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 114.35 while currently trading at 111.75, up slightly for the week looking to break out to the upside in my opinion soon. If you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact. However, that is in major jeopardy of being broken in next week's trade.

I will be recommending a possible bullish position if prices break the October 13th high of 118.75 while then placing the stop loss under the spike bottom and contract low, which was touched on October 21st at 107.35 as the risk is around $1,700 per contract plus slippage and commission.

Juice prices are now trading above their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average as the agricultural sector is starting to look strong. I'm bullish on most commodities and equities at this time, and I think we will finish 2020 on a very strong note.

Orange juice is starting to enter the extremely volatile winter season where a frost can crush the orange juice crop in Florida as the volatility is extremely low. That situation will not last much longer, so play this to the upside as the downside is very limited, as I will not take a short position.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 23.64 an ounce while currently trading at 25.45 up about $1.90 as prices are near a 7 week high. Continue reading "Will Orange Juice Futures Feel The Squeeze?" →

Options: Positive Returns Despite Volatility

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Despite the major averages being in correction territory in September followed by a volatile October, ending with a massive sell-off and heightened election volatility during the first week of November, realized gains were generated. Following the 10 rules in options trading throughout the recent market volatility has generated positive returns in all three market scenarios.

Defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing returns is the core of options trading. All of this, combined with a statistical edge, provides smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. The results over the course of September, October, and the first week of November demonstrate the durability and resiliency of options trading as a means to drive portfolio results.

An agile options based portfolio is essential to navigate these pockets of volatility. The recent September correction, October nosedive, and election volatility are prime examples of why following the 10 rules of options trading is key to an effective long term options strategy. Overall, in May, June, July, August, September, October, October, and thus far in November, 149 trades were placed and closed. An options win rate of 97% was achieved with an average ROI per trade of 7.5% and an overall option premium capture of 88% while outperforming the broader market despite the September correction (Figures 1 and 2).

Options

Figure 1 – Overall option metrics from May 2020 – November 6th, 2020
Continue reading "Options: Positive Returns Despite Volatility" →

United States Still Going Bananas

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.

However, the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).

I have a still profitable position against the Euro that is about to tick un-profitable this morning. That was my hedge against a firming US dollar, which is the anti-market to the US stock market especially, but also to many global markets because I am long US and global stocks. I may have to pull back to hedging stocks (including gold stocks) with high cash levels. So says the ongoing inflationary operation.

I had projected an A-B-C bear market bounce in Uncle Buck, just to keep the macro honest and put a spook into market bulls. But it appears – due to the joy breaking out everywhere – that I will have been wrong about ‘C’. That’s what this breakdown below support (now short-term resistance) says, anyway.

dxy market

We are going bananas not because Trump is/was just another politician when it comes to the modern American tradition of debt-leveraged inflation to disenfranchise the middle and poor and enrich the already spectacularly wealthy. We are going bananas because Continue reading "United States Still Going Bananas" →

Now Could Be the Best Time To Buy Marijuana ETFs

Posted on by Matt Thalman

After a few years of marijuana stocks being high-flyers, largely due to investors rushing in for fear of missing out on the next big industry, the marijuana industry has not been kind to those early investors in recent years. However, that all may be changing very soon.

With a few more States recently voting to legalize the drug and the U.S. House of Representatives scheduled to vote on the decriminalization of marijuana, it truly now appears that it is just a matter of time until the drug is legally sold throughout the United States.

Furthermore, the Mexican government appears to also be on the verge of legalizing the drug as well. If Mexico does legalize marijuana, it could become the largest cannabis market in the world. And since Mexico's climate is ideal for growing marijuana, it could become a powerhouse in terms of a worldwide supplier, or at a minimum, the top North American supplier. However, none of the major Canadian marijuana companies have a foothold in Mexico yet, which could cause delays in how long investors need to wait to see any meaningful gains from their investments in the industry today.

Regardless, though with more U.S. States legalizing it and decriminalization votes set to take place in the U.S. legislature, and Mexico appearing to be on the verge of legalizing the drug, now would seem like a good time to get on the train. It's usually better to be early than it is to be late.

So, if you are ready to buy into the industry, or even if you want to wait, let me give you a few options you can look at Continue reading "Now Could Be the Best Time To Buy Marijuana ETFs" →

U.S. Crude Production Fell In August

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that August crude oil production fell by 401,000 barrels per day, averaging 10.579 mmbd. This follows a 538,000 b/d rise in July and a 2 million barrel per day collapse in May. The August 914 figure compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.429 mmbd, a figure that was 150,000 b/d lower.

Monthly US Crude Production

The primary cause of the drop in production was disruptions in the U.S. Gulf Coast due to hurricane activity. USG production dropped by 453,000 b/d from July, and Texas output fell 49,000 b/d, while Louisiana fell by 17,000 b/d.

Rebounds were largest in North Dakota (126,000 b/d) and New Mexico (27,000). Given the huge reduction in May and this reduction in August, production dropped by 1.806 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply rose by 130,000 b/d from a year ago. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Fell In August" →