ETFs To Invest In When Interest Rates Are Rising

In March, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates for the first time since the Covid-19 Pandemic began. The timing of the interest rate hike was needed as inflation has grown during the pandemic for many reasons. Some believe inflation is on the brink of running out of control, which has Federal Reserve members, economists, and those who work in the financial industry all making a case for more aggressive interest rate increases in the future.

With inflation above 7%, not many people would argue that interest rates need to increase in order to slow and eventually lower the inflation rate. Higher interest rates lower the number of large purchases consumers will make; think cars and homes. But high-interest rates do a similar thing to businesses; it reduces the amount they are willing to spend or reinvest in their company. These two factors together typically end up pushing the economy into a recession of some sort once and if interest rates slow the economy too much.

Tampering with interest rates is a double edge sword; you go too far in one direction, and inflation grows; too far in the other direction, and you send the economy into a recession. Unfortunately, though, we are at a point where the Fed almost has to raise rates in order to slow inflation to a more reasonable level. Continue reading "ETFs To Invest In When Interest Rates Are Rising"

U.S. Dollar To Hit $121; Crude Oil To Hit $176?

It turned out that the dollar weakness we observed in February was about to be over right after the earlier update. I thought we would see more downside for the DX in the area between 94.4 and 92.5 (Fibonacci retracement levels) before the rally resumes, and most readers supported that idea. However, the rally started immediately.

The inflationary pressure underpins the dollar, as the Fed has turned strongly hawkish on the interest rate and tapering. Let us check out the updated daily chart below.

Dollar

In my previous post, we saw the DX piercing down the dotted gray uptrend. Those punctures turned out to be false breaks, as fallouts of the channel were temporary, and the move up resumed overcoming above the preset confirmation level of 97.4. Continue reading "U.S. Dollar To Hit $121; Crude Oil To Hit $176?"

Gold Rises Ahead Of CPI Inflation Report

As of 4:44 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active June 2022 contract is trading up $11.70, a gain of 0.60% at $1949.50. There were some alarming forecasts for the upcoming release of the latest inflationary data vis-à-vis the CPI (Consumer Price Index) on Tuesday, March 12. Just last week, estimates were released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, which revealed a detailed estimate of the upcoming CPI report indicating that the level of inflation in March could run as high as 8.41%. Furthermore, estimates for the first quarter of 2022 predict inflationary pressures quarter over quarter could swell as high as 9.1%.

inflation

The chart above is a 240-minute candlestick chart of gold futures. We have included trendlines highlighting a series of lower highs as well as a series of higher lows. This has created a compression triangle and breakout above the current resistance level. This indicates that gold has concluded its consolidation period and moved back into a solid rally mode. This puts our next target for potential resistance at $1967.60. Above that price point, there is resistance at $2000 and major resistance at $2016. Continue reading "Gold Rises Ahead Of CPI Inflation Report"

Is The Bear Market Rally Over?

The stock market finished the week in the negative as traders braced for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 finished the week just below its 200-day MA, which could signal a move lower if it opens below that level on Monday and makes a move lower. In addition, the red weekly Trade Triangle levels are considerably closer heading into next week, which would mean a leg lower would be in the cards if they are triggered.

The DOW rose 137.55 points or +0.40% to close at 34,721.12. The S&P 500 fell -0.27% to 4,488.28, and the NASDAQ collapsed, losing -1.34% to end the week at 13,711.00.

All three major indexes finished in the red for the week, with the NASDAQ leading the way with a loss of -3.85%, its first weekly loss in four weeks. The DOW lost -0.27%, and the S&P 500 wrapped up a disappointing week with a loss of -1.26%. Continue reading "Is The Bear Market Rally Over?"

BTC Technical Outlook Is Bullish!

If you've hung around my articles long enough, you know that when I take a look at what assets to devote my hard-earned cash to, I've found that both technical and fundamental analysis are two great tools. They've served me well over the years.

In fact, earlier this year I did a deep dive into why both technical and fundamental analysis is the dynamic duo of investing. And I didn't pull any punches about the merits of using both these tools. Here's what I said:

Through my experience as a stockbroker, accountant, and financial analyst, I can tell you that the best investors I've run across usually deploy a mixture of fundamental and technical analysis when they go around looking for investments. They want to know what an asset does and how it makes money. But they also want to know what's happening to its price.

Today, I'm going to revisit the first of these tools, technical analysis, and apply two of my favorite tools in that toolbox to Bitcoin (BTC). Why? Because when I fired up my computers and screeners this morning, my technical signals were going off the charts.

So, let's get to it! Continue reading "BTC Technical Outlook Is Bullish!"