Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 4/04/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The news of the new infrastructure/stimulus bill caused the market (analyzed here using the SPY) to react with a gap up and run type candlestick. This surge took out the highs since it seems the Fed will accept a period of inflation as all these new print and spend policies work their way through the economy. The Jobs numbers beat expectations as well, and this also pushed stocks higher. However, the buying hasn’t shown to be connected to a new surge in internal bullish energy, so I’m still expecting to see a topping process begin soon.

With this new upthrust in prices, the head and shoulder pattern I was forecasting for this week has invalidated itself, and I’ll wait to see what profit-taking pressures show up next week before figuring out if this breakout is just simply the head of a NEW head and shoulders formation. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

S&P 500 Hits Record Close

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The S&P 500 crossed $4,000 for the first time in its history on Thursday, rising +1.2% to a fresh record close of 4,019.87 as Wall Street built on a solid March following the rollout of President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan. The DOW climbed 171.66 points or +0.5%, to 33,153.21, and the NASDAQ jumped +1.8% to 13,480.11.

On a weekly level, the DOW and the S&P 500 posted gains for the week, up +1.1% and +.24%, respectively. The NASDAQ fell +2.60% on the week. However, the market rally has slowed down in recent weeks as rising interest rates, and valuation concerns hit tech names. Continue reading "S&P 500 Hits Record Close" →

Disney - A Discounted Reopening Play

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

As the economy is on the fast track to reopening with a robust vaccine rollout, Disney (DIS) is set to benefit across the board. Disney’s Parks are set to reopen in stages starting in April, with its Disneyland and California Adventure theme parks slated for April 30th. The theme parks reopening will be a major catalyst for Disney as the company annualizes the COIVD-19 pandemic that shuttered all its properties worldwide. The company has been posting phenomenal streaming numbers that have negated the COVID-19 impact on its theme parks. This streaming-specific narrative will change as the theme park revenue comes back online and flows into the company’s earnings. Disney is a compelling reopening play now that the stock is double digits off its highs. Disney is a buy for long-term investors as its legacy business segments get back on track in the latter part of 2021 in conjunction with its wildly successful streaming initiatives.

Theme Parks and Streaming Synergies

Disney (DIS) expects its Disney+ streaming platform will have up to 260 million subscribers by 2040. The company continues to exceed all expectations in the streaming space accelerated by the stay-at-home COVID-19 environment. Despite the COVID-19 headwinds, Disney’s streaming initiatives have been major growth catalysts for the company. Disney+’ growth in its subscriber base has shifted the conversation from COVID-19 impact on its theme parks to a durable and sustainable recurring revenue model. Continue reading "Disney - A Discounted Reopening Play" →

Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The Gold Miner correction was well earned, but it was not a bubble.

Even today there is some pablum out there talking about how if inflation is good for gold it is especially good for gold miners. I will simply repeat once again that if gold usually does not benefit fundamentally by cyclical inflation (i.e. inflation promoted for and currently working toward economic goals) the gold miners never do, unless they rise against their preferred fundamentals as they did during two separate phases in the last bull market, which were justly resolved with crashes.

Here are a couple charts we used in NFTRH 648 in a segment written to set the record straight. We have also used these charts – especially the first one – since the caution flags went up last summer, visually by the first chart and anecdotally by the usual suspects aggressively pumping the unwitting masses. Buffett buys a gold stock!… okay, well so much for that. Sentiment became off the charts over-bullish and now, as we prepare for the final act of the correction, it’s the opposite. That’s perfect.

HUI had far exceeded the Gold/SPX ratio and so it was very vulnerable from a macro fundamental perspective. Why on earth would players want to focus on miners digging a rock out of the ground that was starting to fail in a price ratio to the stock market? They wouldn’t, and since last summer they didn’t.

Gold

But from a sector fundamental perspective the Gold/Oil ratio (Oil/Energy is a primary driver of mining costs) and HUI show that the 2020 rally was nothing like the two bubbles of yesteryear, when not only did HUI hit danger signals (!) noted above by a macro fundamental indicator, it also made two separate bubbles vs. this sector fundamental. This time? Nope, no bubble here. Continue reading "Gold: What A Long And Not So Strange Trip" →

U.S. Petroleum Inventory Rise 4.8 Million Barrels

Posted on by Robert Boslego

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) rose by 4.8 million barrels last week to 1.292 billion, and SPR stocks were unchanged. Total stocks stand 2 mmb below the rising, rolling 5-year average and 31.4 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 233 mmb above that average.

Total US Petroleum Stocks

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.0 mmbd last week, up 100,000 b/d from the prior week. It averaged 10.700 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 18.0 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 10.736 mmbd, off 17.5 % v. last year, about 2.3 mmb/d lower Continue reading "U.S. Petroleum Inventory Rise 4.8 Million Barrels" →