'Sentiment Event' Rally Grinds On

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Excerpted from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, the Opening Notes segment of NFTRH 602:

As we noted in March while it was happening the sentiment environment became terror-stricken. Not fearful. Not over-bearish. Not even a contrarian extreme. Market sentiment was marked by full-frontal terror as indicator after indicator (ref. Sentimentrader's historic readings week after week) got slammed to epic over-bearish proportions.

Into the breach sprang the Treasury (i.e. taxpayer) backed Federal Reserve to the rescue. As the employment numbers come in at the tragic readings that we all saw coming the bears are out there beating a drum (ah, Twitter) about why it is not right, why the Fed cannot print a bull market, why the stock market is going to make new lows and why you should avoid stocks! They have been saying this since the terror-stricken days of March and they are still saying it now.

And do you know what? The rising risk profile that we have been noting for weeks will likely paint them as being right before too long. Imagine all those 'man who predicted a new stock market crash now predicts... (blah blah blah)' headlines that we will be subjected to as the paint-by-numbers media look to feed easy answers to the public later in the year and into 2021. The bears will probably be right but here’s the thing, they have not been right for nearly 2 months now. Continue reading "'Sentiment Event' Rally Grinds On" →

Stay Away From These Industry Focused ETFs

Posted on by Matt Thalman

The economic impact caused by governments around the world to combat the spread of Covid-19 and save lives has taken its toll on nearly every industry. However, while there are arguments to be made that most of those industries will “bounce” back in a reasonable fashion, there is one in particular that truly may never be the same. Or at the very best not until we see a truly effective treatment for Covid-19 or a vaccine.

That industry is travel and leisure-tourism. The airlines have been battered, hotel stocks have been beaten up, and if tourist attractions around the world where publicly traded companies, most of them would have likely already filed for bankruptcy (mild attempt at a joke, you will still be able to visit the Grand Canyon and the pyramids in Egypt in the future.)

But in all seriousness, how long until you will feel comfortable going to New York city and jumping in an elevator to head to the top of the Empire State building? Or even fly to Denver, to stay in a crowded Vail Resorts owned ski resort and then sit on a chair lift or gondola with strangers? How about walk around and stand in lines at an amusement park? Go to a large sporting event or music venue? Continue reading "Stay Away From These Industry Focused ETFs" →

Dismal Jobs Number Doesn't Stop Futures

Posted on by Mike Seery

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 futures in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2821 while currently trading at 2904 ending the week on a positive note trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session. The bullish trend continues even though the unemployment rate is near 15%, which is the highest since the Great Depression.

I am currently not involved, but if you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I do have a bullish bias. I think higher prices are ahead as the U.S. economy is finally starting to open up as optimism has come about, which is a terrific thing to see.

The Nasdaq-100 has now turned positive in 2020 as the technology sector is doing exceptionally well, and I still see more positive returns going forward. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20-day but still below its 100-day moving average, which is just an eyelash away at 2994. That could be broken in the next couple of weeks as the earnings season is upon us.

Volatility at the current time remains very high, and I don't think that situation is going to end anytime soon. We will now have to wait and see what the statistics are about individuals spending money at retail stores and restaurants.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Mexican Peso Futures

The Mexican Peso settled last week at 4023 while currently trading 4190 up over 150 points for the trading week looking to break out of its tight 7-week consolidation. If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I am looking at a possible bullish position to the upside.

I will be recommending a bullish position if prices Continue reading "Dismal Jobs Number Doesn't Stop Futures" →

COVID-19: Speculative Positions Update

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In March, I published a piece on taking speculative positions given the complete market meltdown. It was as good a time as any to put on some speculation plays because this COVID-19 black swan event presented a once in a lifetime opportunity. This COVID-19 induced sell-off has been the worst since the Great Depression in terms of breadth and velocity of the sell-off. This health crisis has crushed stocks and decimated entire industries such as airlines, casinos, travel, leisure, and retail with others in the crosshairs. Now many positions have been sold at realized profits between 20%-100% gains as the market bounced back from its lows in late March.

The broader indices have shed approximately a third of their market capitalization into April. Some individual stocks directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic have lost 50%, 60%, 70% and even 80% of their market capitalization. Investors had been presented with a unique opportunity to start speculating on some of these names as sharp rebound candidates. Throughout the market sell-off, I began to speculate on a variety of names with small amounts of capital. Let's not confuse speculation for investment; thus, these trades were purely speculative for a sharp potential recovery. These names have been battered to levels not seen since the Financial Crisis. Names such as Expedia (EXPE), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Capri Holdings (CPRI), MGM Resorts (MGM), Yelp (YELP), Yum Brands (YUM), Chipotle (CMG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Boeing (BA) and Twitter (TWTR) are some speculative names that have sold off ~40%-85%.

Evaporated Market Capitalization

The COVID-19 pandemic has destroyed entire industries and many individual stocks. Anything related to travel, leisure, retail, industrials, and Continue reading "COVID-19: Speculative Positions Update" →

Is The Worst Behind Us?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Even with the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression the stock market continues to claw it's way higher. Is the worst behind us?

The Labor Department released its jobs report Friday morning, showing that a record 20.5 million jobs were lost In April and that the unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% from just 4.4%. However, those levels were lower than what was expected by most economists who were expecting a loss of 21.5 million jobs and an unemployment rate of 16%.

That marks the highest unemployment rate since the US Bureau of Labor Statistics started tracking the monthly data in 1948, and it's on par with levels of joblessness not seen since the Great Depression in the 1930s, for which the BLS has compiled annual estimates.

But the stock market seems to take solace in the fact that most of these layoffs are seen as temporary and that moving forward, most of the out of work people will resume their jobs as the economy reopens. With the recent market action in mind, is the worst behind us? Continue reading "Is The Worst Behind Us?" →