Stock Market On Pace For Big Weekly Losses

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks opened Friday trading higher for the most part but were unable to hang on to those gains as we headed into afternoon trading and after two weeks of gains the major indexes will post big weekly losses. All three indexes are looking at losses of over 2% with the DOW leading the way lower with a -2.6% weekly loss. The NASDAQ is in second place with a loss of -2.5% meanwhile the S&P 500 just checked in with a -2% loss.

For the first time in four weeks, the U.S. dollar will have a weekly loss of -.42%. The move lower came after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida offered some dovish comments. Clarida told CNBC that central bank's pace of rate hikes wasn't too fast while also saying that the global economy showed signs of slowing. Overall the Chart Analysis Score is +55 with the recent weakness, but it's still on a long-term uptrend.

Big Weekly Losses

Crude Oil has stabilized at weeks end ending its historic slide six-week slide finding support at the $55 level. Oil looks to finish the week with three straight days of gains, but it will still post a big weekly loss of -5.2%. The Chart Analysis Score remains low at -90 indicating that the long-term downtrend still has considerable strength.

Much like oil, gold is looking to finish the week on a strong note with four straight days of gains trading back above the $1200 level and is the only instrument that we track that will post a weekly gain standing at +1% gaining back half of the last weeks -2% loss. Even with the recent daily strength, the Chart Analysis Score remains low at -75 telling you that the overall long-term trend is still strong.

Bitcoin suffered its most significant weekly loss in ten weeks standing to lose -12.8%. However, bitcoin has been and remains trapped in a tight trading just below its 50-day MA. The Chart Analysis Score of -90 tells you that the long-term downtrend is gaining strength and could head lower from here.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Stock Market On Pace For Big Weekly Losses" →

Stocks Lose Early Gains As Tech Declines

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. What looked to be a promising humpday this morning quickly turned negative as the DOW reversed course. It had been trading over 200 pts higher in early trading but has since fallen over 330 pts trading below 25,000 and losing over 1.3% on the day. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have followed suit with both indexes losing over 1.2%. It sure looks like volatility is here to stay.

The turn lower coincided with Apple breaking below its 200-day MA trading losing over 2.7% on the day and currently trading at the session low of $186.70 and trading 20% below its 52-week high, entering a bear market. The decline comes after Guggenheim downgraded the stock. This downgrade comes as UBS cut its 12-month price target on the stock and follows a target reduction at Goldman Sachs. Investors have been worried the company's iPhone sales will slow down soon.

trading

The only bright spot in the market is crude oil, which is looking to stop its twelve-day slide trading higher on the day. Oil is up over 1% trading at $56 a barrel, off the session low of $55.13. OPEC and Russia signaled Sunday they could decide at their December 6th meeting to hold back output by around 1 million barrels a day. This announcement came amid signs the market will be oversupplied in 2019.

The International Energy Agency warned in its report Wednesday that global oil supply was on pace to significantly outstrip demand, as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. are pumping out crude at record levels.

President Donald Trump sent another warning to producer cartel OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) earlier this week, saying he hoped the group would not cut output in a move to buoy prices. The fall in crude has also sparked worries of a global economic slowdown.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

Continue reading "Stocks Lose Early Gains As Tech Declines" →

Where Do We Go From Here?

Posted on by George Yacik

As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at last week’s post-Election Day monetary policy meeting, while signaling another 25-basis point increase in the federal funds rate at its December 18-19 get-together.

But the results of last week’s elections, which returned control of the House to the Democrats, may put future rate increases next year in doubt. That bodes well for long-term Treasury bond prices – i.e., yields may have peaked.

As we know, Maxine Waters, D-California, is now the likely next chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. To put it mildly, she doesn’t like banks. Her first order of business, no doubt, is to impeach President Trump, as she’s said countless times. But a more realistic second goal will be to roll back all or most of the recent bank regulatory measures made so far by the Trump Administration, which, of course, rolled back much of the regulatory measures passed under the previous administration, mainly through the Dodd-Frank financial reform law.

If she’s successful, that will reduce the mammoth profits the banks have been making the past several years, which were boosted further by the Republicans’ tax reform law. That sharply reduced corporate income tax rates, not just for banks but all companies, although the banks seem to be the biggest beneficiaries. No doubt Waters and her Democrat colleagues have that in their gunsights also.

But that won’t be the end of it. Continue reading "Where Do We Go From Here?" →

Gold & Silver: Falling Knives

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Silver has failed to complete the second leg up as it couldn’t break above the August top of $15. It is interesting that this misbehavior of the white metal didn’t surprise you as the majority of you had bet last week that silver would fail and drop below $14.2. It’s impressive how accurate your forecast was!

In this post, I would like to update downside targets as we should be prepared for the resumption of the drop in metals after pullbacks have been finished.

Chart 1. Gold Weekly: Bear Flag Targets Bottom

falling knives
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Last week I reminded you of the big range of trade, which requires the retest of the downside of the range to complete the setup. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Falling Knives" →

Will Oil Find Support Near $60?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Our research team warned of this move in Crude Oil back on October 7, 2018. At that time, we cautioned that Oil may follow a historical price pattern, moving dramatically lower and that lows near $65 may become the ultimate bottom for that move. Here we are with a price below that level, and many are asking “where will it go from here?”.

We believe the support near $65, although clearly broken, may eventually become resistance for a future upside price move. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting a new target near $52~53, and we believe this downside move in Oil is far from over at this point.

global climate

The current global climate for Oil is that suppliers are pumping more and more oil into the market at a time when, historically, prices should continue to decline. One of our research tools includes the ability to identify overall bias models for each week, month or quarter. Traditionally, Oil is dramatically weaker in November and relatively flat for December. Continue reading "Will Oil Find Support Near $60?" →