Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract finished up 3 cents at 14.35 an ounce stuck in a three-week consolidation pattern as prices look to be bottoming out in my opinion as the U.S dollar hit a two month low today helping stabilize silver and the precious metals across the board. If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I have been bearish for quite some time however if you are still short a futures contract place the stop loss on a hard basis only at 14.39 which is only 6 cents away as it looks to me that a possible bullish scenario could be developing. If you take a look at the daily chart, the downtrend line remains intact, however, if prices rally about $0.10 that would be broken as the chart structure is excellent due to the low volatility. I could be possibly recommending a bullish position in the coming weeks ahead as the real weakness in silver prices was due to an extremely strong dollar, but that scenario has now changed. Silver prices are trading right at their 20-day moving average, but far below their 100-day as the trend remains lower as the U.S. stock market hit another all-time high today. I have had a bullish recommendation for quite some time as that's where all the interest lies, however, the commodity markets are extremely cheap in my opinion compared to equity prices. I think 2019 could be the start of a lot of bullish trends.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

IBB - Stealth Bull Market Unfolding

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) which serves as a proxy for the biotechnology cohort has finally broken out to a 52-week of $122 against its 52-week low of $100 in May. This 20%-plus appreciation over the summer has largely gone unnoticed while some individual companies have soared even higher over this same period. The biotechnology cohort has been decimated over the past 2-plus years over the drug pricing debate while serving as a political punching bag. To be fair, the entire pharmaceutical supply chain became a victim of harsh political rhetoric as share prices fell across all companies involved in this space in any capacity. The biotechnology cohort has been largely ignored in this massive bull market and appears relatively cheap in comparison to other sectors. As the confluence of abating political threats, drug pricing certainty, merger and acquisition activity and continuity of the current health care backdrop, this cohort has witnessed a stealth bull market. This uptrend is likely to have legs as valuations remain compelling and many names have become value stocks.

Furthermore, as the raging bull market continues into frothy territory, downside risks continue to mount. Bank of America is predicting an end to the current bull market run and in less certain times pharma companies will benefit. Individual names within the sector have demonstrated incredible strength as of recent such as Regeneron (REGN), Bristol Meyers (BMY), Allergan (AGN), Celgene (CELG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Amgen (AMGN).

Challenging 2016, Recovering 2017 and IBB’s Resurgence in 2018

After a banner year in 2015 for the biotech ETF, the cohort sold off in a dramatic fashion falling from $138 to $89 or a 37% decline. The healthcare sector had been faced with an uncertain and volatile political backdrop. As President Trump and other political pundits vowed to bring down drug prices and increase scrutiny over the sector, IBB found its footing and set a floor near the $89 level. The ~$90 level was tested a handful of times in 2016, and it was evident that many of these political threats were being priced-in after its sharp and sustained sell-off. This sharp decline and subsequent floor coincided with heated political rhetoric aimed at the collective cohort of healthcare and more specifically biotech companies. I strongly felt that these events were extraneous and would eventually subside without any significant impact on the underlying stocks within IBB. I felt this politically induced sell-off presented a great buying opportunity considering the ~40% decline and extraneous pressures. I had written about such opportunities throughout 2016 during the market sell-off and the Brexit, respectively (Figure 1). I felt that these were great entry points for any long-term investor that desired exposure to the biotechnology sector. Ostensibly, many of these stocks were trading at multiyear low P/E ratios and as a cohort (gauged via the IBB proxy) looked to be less sensitive to tweets/threats as IBB continued to test the ~$90 barrier throughout 2016. 2017 saw a nice recovery and posted a ~20% gain, and 2018 is shaping up to posting another double-digit annual return thus far the index is up ~14% YTD. Biotechnology remains one of the few sectors that money has yet to rotate into now that retail has caught fire.
Continue reading "IBB - Stealth Bull Market Unfolding" →

Record Week For Stock Market

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The S&P 500 and DOW both traded at record highs for the second straight day this week being propelled by the energy sector as crude oil prices continue to trade above $70 a barrel. Of the two indexes, it's bigger news that the DOW finally hit a new high, it's first since January of this year when it's compatriates have been consistently making new highs this year.

The Dow has risen in eight of the past nine trading sessions, with the most recent gains putting the index up 2.2% for the week, its best weekly stretch since July 13.

Record Week Stock Market

The S&P 500 is posting a +1% gain on the week the NASDAQ will barely post a weekly gain checking in with +.10%. For the second straight week, gold is relatively unchanged for the week while crude oil had a great week posting a +3.4% gain.

The U.S. dollar continues to be in a sidelines mode with a red weekly Trade Triangle on the board and looking to post its second weekly loss in a row standing at -.70%. Bitcoin finally gave us the red weekly Trade Triangle that we've been waiting for only to bounce higher and finish the week with a +2.9%. However, expect more volatility in the near-term.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Record Week For Stock Market" →

World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, September 2018

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in July at 2.804 billion barrels. It shows inventories rising in the third quarter, contrary to the usual seasonal trend. However, it forecasts that stocks will drop in December to 2.798 billion after the Iranian sanctions are expected to go into effect.

Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise, ending the year with 72 million barrels more than at the end of 2017. The anticipated drop in Iranian production, due to the U.S. sanctions, is forecast to be offset by increases from other producers, such as the U.S., Canada and the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.

World Oil Supply

Saudi Arabia has recently stated that it can produce at least 12 million barrels per day. If it does increase output to that level, this would be a major “surprise” to world markets since its production has never exceeded 11 million. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, September 2018" →

DOW Shrugs Off Latest Round Of Tariffs

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. While the overall market is a bit mixed today the DOW continues to shine as it approaches its all-time high. As we stand in early afternoon trading the DOW is up +.75% on the day and only 175 points or so from hitting a new record high above 26,616.71. This move two-day move higher comes on the heels of a weak close last week and weak open on Monday as we waited for the latest round of tariffs against Chinese goods.

DOW continues to shine

Late Monday, President Trump announced that 10% tariffs on $200 billion in imports from China would go into effect next week, escalating the trade war between the world's two largest economies, but the key point was that there would be a slower escalation of the tariffs through the end of the year which will ultimately rise to 25%. China responded on Tuesday by unveiling 10% tariffs on about $60 billion of U.S. goods effective Sept. 24.

The beat goes on.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

Continue reading "DOW Shrugs Off Latest Round Of Tariffs" →