With the Fed firmly on hold, stocks are in quarter-ending ramp job helped by a falling dollar. We take a spin around the markets and key sectors leading us and then finish with Fibonacci analysis of our new option position in the US dollar ETF.
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Plan Your Trade, and Trade Your Plan,
Todd Gordon
China has resorted to its old habit of stimulating the economy by allowing the Yuan weaken. But while the "remedy" has yet to work its wonders. The side effects, are already emerging—inflation is on the rise.
The People's Bank of China, China's central bank, ought to decide - support China's manufacturing or curb inflation.
What will the Chinese central bank do? And equally important, how will the dollar respond?
In order for us to try and gauge the next move by China's central bank, we must delve first into the logic. In other words, what is the central bank considering? Now, that's not an easy undertaking, by any stretch of the imagination. Nevertheless, the task has turned a tiny bit simpler. Last month, in an interview with the Caixin Weekly, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, outlined the central bank's policy.
Here are the points to focus on: Continue reading "China's Policy About To Hit The Dollar?"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere!
Once again Janet Yellen, the chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, gave the market yet another easy money "fix". Easy money is the drug of choice for this market and has been for the past six years. Can the insanity of printing more and more money keep going on and on, or will the market have to go into rehab and kick its easy money dependency? Only time will tell. Eventually someone, and that means all of us, will have to pay the piper.
As of today, many stocks, including the major indices, remain locked in broad trading ranges. This could all change as we come to the end the first quarter and move into April. Continue reading "Apple's Secret Weapon"
Old trading wisdom says, "The Trend is your friend." I hope that you also prefer trending markets as it is the clearest action of market unity. I was patiently waiting for the upside move in oil to exhaust itself and see a clear break of the trend with a daily close and the following open to be below that close. And it happened today. So let's think about the coming opportunities.
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Oil finally managed to close the gap with the copper thanks to a very sharp trend amid a flat move in copper. Although copper peaked earlier than oil, the former started down first, as usual. They began to diverge again as oil fell below the blue support line while copper bounced up from its Thursday low. We will see if oil is still an early indicator of the copper move and if will they both hit new bottoms.
I refreshed the daily charts below to show you the recent moves in detail. Continue reading "Copper Update: Follow The Crude?"
Hello MarketClub members everywhere. I have to say that I have an uneasy feeling about the markets today. As you know, for some time I have been neutral to negative on the major indices based on the monthly Trade Triangles. As I pointed out yesterday, the first cracks in the armor came when the indices fell below their PSAR levels. The only exception was the NASDAQ, whose PSAR comes in today at 4734.77. Should the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) trade below that level today, it would indicate that all indices are now vulnerable to a fairly sharp selloff.
Indices: I will be looking at all the major indices and indicating where they could potentially slip to in the weeks ahead. Also, Janet Yellen, head of the Federal Reserve, will be talking about the economy today. I have been a vocal critic of the Fed's policy for some time and believe the Fed is in over its head and doesn't quite know how to resolve the current continued weakness in the US economy. Continue reading "I Have An Uneasy Feeling Today"
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