Author: Aibek Burabayev

Gold Bounced as Silver Broke Downtrend

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Both triggers were pulled in the precious metals since my last post about gold and silver. I hope it is interesting for you to see how you voted about the metals price action in that article.

Let’s start with the gold votes below.

Gold Bounced

Most of you (54%) thought that gold would resume the drop. It was a slight edge over the other option where you chose the completion of the pullback. Let’s check in the chart below to see what actually happened with the gold price since then.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Second Leg Of A Pullback

Gold Bounced
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The price of gold has finished the consolidation highlighted with the thin red down arrows in the earlier chart between the B and the C points of the blue AB/CD segments. The simple measurement pointed at the $1180 level, where I said the CD segment should start. Indeed, the gold has hit the $1181 low within the BC part and then bounced up towards the end of the last week to close at the $1191. This is the magic of simple math, which occurs in the charts again and again. Continue reading "Gold Bounced as Silver Broke Downtrend" →

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield Eyes 3.33%

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last week I promised to update the outlook for the U.S. interest rate, which has a strong impact on every asset class including precious metals.

More than a year ago I shared with you my concerns about the future of gold once the “era of rising rates” would come. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield (10Y) was at 2.2%, and large investment banks forecasted 3% yield for the near future at that time.

Indeed, that future has come in one year the 10Y is above the 3% now, and it doesn’t look like it’s the final stop. To see what could be the next I’ll share with you two charts starting from a short-term view.

Chart 1. 10Y Weekly: 3.33% And More

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This chart above observes the past five years to envelop the earlier top of 3.04%, which is under a second attack as the first one this past May couldn’t peg it. The yield closed last week at the 3.07%, and this time it could finally overcome the barrier to reach the target.
Continue reading "10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield Eyes 3.33%" →

Gold Struggles While Silver Doesn't

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

In this post, I will take a deep dive into the chart structure of the precious metals as prices approach crucial triggers but on the opposite sides of each metal.

Let’s start with gold as it struggles to gain a foothold above $1200.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Pullback

Gold Struggles
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The votes were split almost evenly in the poll in my earlier post about the gold’s outlook. Half of the readers chose the trigger of the upside resistance at the $1218 and the rest thought that the market would drop to retest the $1122. The metal price then was just a little bit lower than these days at the $1186.

Almost one month has passed since then, and to my surprise, none of the triggers were pulled although we were very close to the $1218 point, the market couldn’t push above the $1214 at the end of the August and then retreated below $1200. This month we could see the increasing activity as investors are back from their summer holidays. There was another attempt to clear the resistance last week, but it stalled at the $1213 and the significant level again remained untouched. Continue reading "Gold Struggles While Silver Doesn't" →

Chip Maker Hits Target, Beats Rivals and Bitcoin

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last November I shared a promising trading opportunity to play on the Modern “Gold Rush” For Cryptocoins. Like the Great Gold Rush, I thought that those who sell equipment could benefit from new a “tulip mania” as this crypto buzz was called in the media.

I selected three chip makers, which were well known for the broad use of their products in the “mining” of cryptocoins. These companies are NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited (TSM). Firstly, I made the same comparative chart analysis of their stocks as I usually do for the classic mining stocks; it is funny that the word “mining” I used here has a totally different meaning.

We were on the right path as despite the market euphoria there was one stock, which lagged behind the others and the gap was significant. The laggard Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). It was the only one, which showed the negative price dynamics for the first ten months of 2017 with a -2.71% loss compared to +104.58% for NVDA, +43.94% for TSM and +14.62% for S&P 500. Continue reading "Chip Maker Hits Target, Beats Rivals and Bitcoin" →

Gold & Silver: Hard Ground or Quicksand?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

I know that most of the readers don’t like when I post bearish outlooks for the top metals as even if there are dozens of downloads, still nobody pushes the “like” button. It could be a fascinating research subject for behavioral finance or at least an excellent contrarian indicator.

Frankly speaking, I keep an unbiased stance and share my view of the structures that develop in the market. I just read signals that the market sends us all the time. From the start of the year, there are totally bearish outlooks were posted as we had strong signs in the charts and we can see that they proved to be right and one could make good money.

In this post I would like to address the question that arises these days, is this recent bounce a reversal or just another correction?

Let’s start with gold.

Gold Weekly Chart: Market Eyes $1122 To Complete The Structure

Gold Weekly Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Before we start I recommend that you check out this earlier gold chart to see the price and triggers’ position before the drop and signals, which I outlined in that post to refresh your memory as more than six months passed. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Hard Ground or Quicksand?" →