Category: INO.com Contributors

Commodity Prices Hit 7-Year High Amid New Bull Run

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The Refinitiv/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB index) is a commodity futures price index. It was well known under the name Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index before renaming. The CRB index is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 items as quoted on the NYMEX, CBOT, LME, CME, and COMEX exchanges within four following groups:

    • Petroleum-based products (based on their importance to global trade, always make up 33% of the weightings)
    • Liquid assets
    • Highly liquid assets
    • Diverse commodities

It includes aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natural gas, nickel, orange juice, silver, soybeans, sugar, unleaded gas, and wheat.

More than four years ago, I shared with you a big map of the CRB index with a long-term outlook. (Original chart is below) Continue reading "Commodity Prices Hit 7-Year High Amid New Bull Run" →

Is Bitcoin An Inflation Hedge? Maybe...

Posted on by Wayne Burritt

I don't have to tell you that no matter what economic stat you're interested in, the belle of the ball is inflation. It's the one that everyone loves to talk about. It's the one that politicians and talking heads like to worry you about. And it's the one that is responsible for a ton of real-world economic horror stories.

And right now, it stands a mind-boggling 5.4% annual rate, way above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%.

So, as a Bitcoin and blockchain enthusiast, is there something that maybe crypto can do for us as we navigate through increasing inflation?

You bet. And I'm about to tell you why.

Yes, Inflation Is Too High

If you're a fan of moderate inflation, you're probably not feeling great right now. Prices are at levels that haven't been seen in decades.

In fact, right now, inflation stands at an annual rate of 5.4% in September, up from 5.3% in August. And we haven't seen these kinds of levels in a long time. See for yourself... Continue reading "Is Bitcoin An Inflation Hedge? Maybe..." →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 11/14/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

As the stimulus injection from the Fed loses its "oomph," the market had a flat and quiet week. Now that the "drug" of stimulus was worn off, we can watch to see what true organic supply/demand pressures are left in the market.

The problem with these stimulus rallies is that it creates a "reset" in the cycles that I track and measure, which allow me to forecast price moves with accuracy. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

PayPal - Importance Of Risk-Defined Option Trading

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Options trading can provide a meaningful addition to one's portfolio when used in a disciplined manner. When used as a component of an overall portfolio approach, generating consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing return on capital can be achieved. Options can enable smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. An options-based portfolio can provide durability and resiliency to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk via a holistic beta-controlled manner. When engaging in options trading, specific rules must be followed, and one of the most important rules is to structure every option trade in a risk-defined (put spreads, call spreads, iron condors, etc.) manner.

PayPal (PYPL) was a recent example where the stock witnessed a massive meltdown from an ill-advised acquisition target (Pinterest) coupled with quarterly earnings that were deemed dismal. These two events culminated into a 35% slide from a 52-week high of $310 down to ~$200 post-earnings. Hence the importance of risk-defining all options trades to limit any downward stock movement beyond your protection strike. Risk-defined options trading prevents any losses beyond a specific strike price, avoids the assignment of shares, does not require a significant amount of capital, and does not potentially result in unrealized losses while soaking up capital with any share assignments.

Risk-Defined Options Trading

Risk-defined option trades are straightforward. Below is a theoretical example deploying a put spread on a stock that currently trades at $100 per share. Continue reading "PayPal - Importance Of Risk-Defined Option Trading" →

ETF Investors Should Know Their Tesla Exposure

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Shares of the electric car manufacturer Tesla (TSLA) have undergone a meteoritical rise over the past few years, a move that very few investors have ever seen or experienced. Since late October 2019, Tesla has been up more than 1,680%, compared to the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which is up just 59% over the same timeframe. The move Tesla has made is nothing but incredible, and congratulations to all those investors who had the foresight and fortune to have owned Tesla stock, either directly or through, and some sort of fund and have benefited from the move.

However, as with all investments, what goes up, can come down. And Tesla has undoubtedly seen this story play out over time as a publicly-traded company. Several times throughout its time, including this week, it has seen massive pullbacks and corrections, of course only to go even higher longer term. But that doesn't mean another move lower, like the 36% drop during a six-week period earlier in 2021, should be dismissed by investors.

Both long and short-term focused investors need to understand that stocks of even the best companies move higher and then lower, only to move higher again. And understanding this movement and knowing what the risk of an investment is and the potential return an investment has, is extremely important can help you invest smarter. Continue reading "ETF Investors Should Know Their Tesla Exposure" →