What's Next For Gold?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Early trading on January 4, 2019, saw Gold reach just above $1300 per ounce – confirming our price target from our research and posts on November 24, 2018. The importance of this move cannot be under-estimated. Traders and investors need to understand the recent rally in the metals markets are attempting to alert us that FEAR is starting to re-enter the market and that 2019 could start the year off with some extended volatility.

Our research has shown that Gold will likely rotate between $1270~1315 over the next 30~60 days before attempting to begin another rally. Our next upside price target is near $1500. We will continue to post articles to help everyone understand when and how this move will happen. We expect Gold to rotate near the $1300 level for at least another 30 days before attempting another price rally.

Pay attention to the Support Zone on this Daily Gold chart and understand that price rotation is very healthy for the metals markets at this point. A reprieve in this recent Gold rally would allow the start of 2019 to prompt a moderate rally in the US stock market as well as allow a continued capital shift to take place. As capital re-enters the global equities markets, investors will be seeking the best investment opportunities and safest environments for their capital. Our belief is that the US stock market will become the top-tier solution for many of these investments. Continue reading "What's Next For Gold?" →

The Fed's New Dual Mandate

Posted on by George Yacik

As most of us probably know by now, the Federal Reserve operates under a “dual” mandate from Congress to “promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” (Leave it to the federal government to give a “dual” mandate three goals. But I digress).

Since the Fed effectively gets its mandate from Congress, it stands to reason that Congress can also change the mandate if it wants. Forthwith, I am humbly suggesting that it do just that. Namely, the word “moderate” should be replaced by the words “zero percent,” while the Fed will be given a new directive to ensure that stock prices rise by at least 8% a year. Given this new command, the “stable prices” mandate may have to go, but I’m sure reasonable people can agree that’s a small price to pay (no pun intended) for a guarantee against any investor losing money.

I’m confident that this is one thing that President Trump, who says he’s a “low-interest person,” and the Democrats in Congress, who need lots of wealthy people to support their socialist agenda, can wholeheartedly embrace. I’m sure Fed chair Jerome Powell and his successors will be happy, too, since it will forever protect them from any political criticism. Continue reading "The Fed's New Dual Mandate" →

Pendulum Swing No.6: Input Error

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Another half of a year passed with a new year starting its track. It is time to see the result of the 6th Pendulum swing started in the middle of 2018. To remind you, we had pitted the VIX against sugar and below are your bets for that experiment.

Pendulum

You are the best readers I could only dream of as you support my experiment with your real votes for the success of it.

Let’s see which instrument won at the end of the year.

Chart 1. Half Year Futures Performance (Second Half Of 2018)

Pendulum
Chart courtesy of finviz.com

As we can see from this half-year, performance chart sugar couldn’t beat the VIX, which dominated the futures market by a huge margin throughout 2018. One can think that the experiment failed this time, but in my opinion, we have the wrong selection of one input. I am talking about the VIX. The thing is that the underlying asset of these futures is not a commodity, but the “Fear index” or the indicator of the risk approach. Continue reading "Pendulum Swing No.6: Input Error" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,283 an ounce while currently trading at 1,286 up slightly for the week, but ending on a sour note. The monthly employment report was released this morning showing that we added over 300,000 new jobs which were higher than expectations. That shows you how strong the U.S. economy is at this time despite the fact of huge volatility in the stock market as that sent gold down about $8 which isn't too bad in my opinion as I remain bullish. I have been recommending a bullish trade from the 1,252 level land if you took that trade place the stop loss under the ten-day low which now has been raised to 1,257 as the chart structure will improve on a daily basis starting next week. Gold prices touched the 1,300 level as I still think we can get up to 1,350 in the coming weeks ahead as strong demand has come back into the precious metals as I am currently recommending bullish positions in silver and platinum. Gold futures are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend has turned higher so continue to play this to the upside and if you're not involved, wait for some further price pullback to enter into a bullish position
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

The Men Who Stare At Charts

Posted on by The INO.com Team

gold/silver ratioI was going to look around to see if I could find a media article out there (complete with a TA trying to sound really important) that would be appropriate to be made fun of in our little Men Who Stare at Charts series. But then I decided to create my own chart, stare at it a little, post it and talk about it (hopefully not too self-importantly).

Introducing an all too busy long-term (monthly) view of the Gold/Silver ratio, along with some key nominal markets.

The Continuum in the lower panel symbolizes the deflationary backbone that has been in place for decades. I maintain that this is a firm marker against which the Fed inflates money supplies, manipulates bonds and by extension manipulates inflation signals. We have been on a theme that like Jerome Powell or hate him, he knows exactly what he is doing because to do otherwise (promote ongoing bubbles on top of bubbles) would, in essence, end the Fed’s racket, as symbolized by a real breakout in long-term yields. Continue reading "The Men Who Stare At Charts" →