Why The U.S. Gasoline Stock Build Was Not Surprising

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that gasoline stocks had “surprisingly surged despite heavy driving on the Memorial Day weekend.” But the 3.3 million barrel build was actually not that surprising, given the development of gasoline production capacity and the relative softness of gasoline demand.

Over the past four years, the U.S. refining industry expanded its gasoline production capacity in the United States by almost one million barrels per day. In 2013, production peaked at just below 9.5 million barrels per day. Last year, production peaked at 10.3 million. And this summer production could reach 10.5 million.

Gasoline Production

Gasoline demand growth has lagged. Peak demand in 2013 was just above 9.1 million. Last summer, demand peaked at 9.6 million, an increase of about one-half million.

But in the year-to-date, gasoline demand has been 2.9% lower than over the same weeks in 2016. Retail gasoline prices dropped to low levels in the first quarter of 2016, when crude oil prices were bottoming, and that created a surge in demand that was not repeated in 2017. Continue reading "Why The U.S. Gasoline Stock Build Was Not Surprising"

Quadruple Leveraged ETF Approved and I Am Terrified

Matt Thalman - INO.com Contributor - ETFs


At the beginning of May 2017 the wise, an all knowing Securities & Exchange Commission approved a new leveraged Exchange Traded Fund. While SEC approvals for new funds don’t often make headlines, the reason this was did because of the amount of leverage the new ETF offers and what it means for the future of investing.

On May 2, 2017, the SEC approved the ForceShares Daily 4x US Markets Futures Long Fund which will have the ticker "UP" and the ForceShares Daily 4x US Markets Futures Short Fund which will have the ticker "DOWN."

Yes, you did read that correctly, these are 4X funds which will deliver 400% the daily performance of the S&P 500. Previously investors had access to 3X funds, which offered 300% the daily moves of the indexes they track, but with this move, 400% may now seem to be the benchmark. Continue reading "Quadruple Leveraged ETF Approved and I Am Terrified"

AbbVie Put/Call Combination Produces 400% Greater Return

Introduction and Set-Up

Below I’ll discuss my year-long call/put combination using AbbVie as an example. I’ve successfully been able to obtain a 15.3% return based on the current stock price while the buy and hold strategy would've only yielded 3.6% return. This is greater than a 400% difference in overall returns for this given stock over the past year. Leveraging the coupling of calls and puts around a core position over time can accentuate total returns and mitigate risk on a given stock. As discussed in more detail below, covered calls and covered puts can be combined to one's advantage. This is especially true in large-cap, dividend-paying stocks that tend to trade within a narrow range for long periods of time. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) is a prime example that fits this narrative and thus the stock of choice for this piece. Over the past two-plus years this stock has traded in a tight range between $55 and $65 per share while paying a dividend of ~4% on an annual basis (Figure 1). The company has strong fundamentals, financial stability and a robust pipeline for potential growth and sustainability. The goal here to initiate a position in AbbVie using a covered put to purchase the stock at a lower price than it's currently trading at a future date while collecting a premium in the process. If the stock isn't assigned then walk away with the premium and freed up cash that was earmarked for the potential purchase. If the stock is assigned, then shares are purchased at the agreed-upon price (strike price), less the premium for the actual purchase price. Now we've entered the position via leveraging a covered put, now the shares can be leveraged for covered calls to extract additional value throughout the holding of the stock while collecting the dividend. Ideally, we want to enter the position via a covered put and endlessly sell covered calls while collecting the dividend. However if the stock is called away during the selling of a covered call then this process can be repeated while being cognizant of the x-dividend dates to enhance overall returns.

Chart of AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV)
Figure 1 – AbbVie’s tight trading range over the past 2-plus years
Continue reading "AbbVie Put/Call Combination Produces 400% Greater Return"

OPEC Lost Hedge Fund Long Oil Traders' Support

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo

The drop in crude oil prices in the international market after the decision by OPEC to extend its production cut through March 2018 is not a major concern for now, the Secretary General of the group, Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo said. He's not worried about lower prices.

He explained that OPEC is only concerned with the fundamentals of supply, demand and inventories. He is not concerned about other market conditions. Presumably, he means the sentiment of oil traders. Continue reading "OPEC Lost Hedge Fund Long Oil Traders' Support"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 47.66 a barrel while currently trading at 45.55 down about $2 for the trading week, but still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as prices are looking to retest the May 5th low of 44.13 in my opinion. The longer-term and short-term trend is to the downside as large supplies continue to keep a lid on prices. Gasoline and heating oil also continue to move lower, and my only recommendation in the energy sector is short the natural gas market at this time. The chart structure in oil is poor as the 10-day high is around $52 which is over $6 away. I'm currently waiting for the monetary risk to be lowered and I am looking at a short position possibly in next week's trade. There are concerns about gasoline demand which has also pushed oil lower over the last several weeks, but this market has been very choppy in 2017 as the volatility in the commodity markets are starting to rise once again as the summer months are upon us and historically speaking this is when you see large price swings up or down.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"