Tag: technical analysis

NFTRH 518 Excerpt: Precious Metals

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In honor of the men staring at silver’s daily chart, let’s highlight NFTRH 518’s Precious Metals segment this morning. We have 60% of the new trading week in the books and not much has changed for the PMs since this was written. You’ll notice that this man who stares at charts gets a little wordy at the end. There is much context that would-be gold bugs need to have in hand.

Precious Metals

Last week:

Here is how I see the precious metals situation. It’s one or the other of…

  1. US dollar declines short-term and the precious metals bounce with the rest of the anti-USD trade, or…
  2. US dollar rises (likely along with the Gold/Silver ratio) and the precious metals decline again into a real buying opportunity.

Thing 1 carried the day (week). I don’t care (well, actually I do but work with me here…) how many gold bugs leave the subscriber base while I am not able to give a long-term green light, but we are going to track the proper fundamentals, not the imaginary ones. And this bounce along with China, copper, global stocks, US stocks and everything else in the cyclical world is not proper. Not until all that crap tops out.

It. Is. A. Bounce… until it proves otherwise by seeing gold rise against CRB, SPX, ACWX and while we’re at it, global currencies.

So for now it’s just a bounce, and the [daily] Silver/Gold ratio did make a positive hint of Friday. Continue reading "NFTRH 518 Excerpt: Precious Metals" →

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield Eyes 3.33%

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last week I promised to update the outlook for the U.S. interest rate, which has a strong impact on every asset class including precious metals.

More than a year ago I shared with you my concerns about the future of gold once the “era of rising rates” would come. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield (10Y) was at 2.2%, and large investment banks forecasted 3% yield for the near future at that time.

Indeed, that future has come in one year the 10Y is above the 3% now, and it doesn’t look like it’s the final stop. To see what could be the next I’ll share with you two charts starting from a short-term view.

Chart 1. 10Y Weekly: 3.33% And More

10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This chart above observes the past five years to envelop the earlier top of 3.04%, which is under a second attack as the first one this past May couldn’t peg it. The yield closed last week at the 3.07%, and this time it could finally overcome the barrier to reach the target.
Continue reading "10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Yield Eyes 3.33%" →

Are Technology And FANG Stocks Bottoming?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Recent downside pricing pressure on Technology and FANG stocks have kept investors wary of jumping back into the market while we wait to see where the bottom may form. Concerns about long-term pricing pressures, US trade wars and the continued Congressional testimony regarding privacy and censorship issues have kept social media technology stocks in a negative perspective. The only aspect of this pricing pullback that is positive is that these stocks will, at some point, find a price bottom and attempt to rally as investors rush back into their favorites attempting to ride the run higher.

Our researchers believe the current price levels could be a prime example of a short-term bottom setting up in certain technology stocks. Both Apple and Amazon are two of the biggest and most actively traded stocks on the US Stock exchange. They differ from many of the other FANG stocks because these companies actually produce and sell consumer products & services that are, in many ways, essential to conducting commerce and trade.

This 30-minute chart of Apple shows our Adaptive Dynamic Learning Cycles price modeling system showing a cycle low is setting up over the next day or two in Apple followed by an upside price cycle that should push prices back above $220. Notice the oversold levels highlighted in BRIGHT GREEN. The last major oversold levels setup just below $218. The current oversold levels are setting up just below $217. We believe these $217 levels will likely set up a price bottom and prompt an upside price rally over the next 5+ days that could push Apple prices well above $225.

FANG Stocks

Amazon is setting up a different type of price bottoming formation – a Fibonacci price retracement bottom. We use these Fibonacci price retracement levels in conjunction with our other price modeling systems to attempt to determine where and when price reversals may be set up in the future. In this example, we can see a price bottom formed in early August of a Fibonacci 50% price pullback and the current price pullback is testing the same 50% level. We believe this current setup will prompt a price bottom to form and an upside price rally will likely result in AMZN rushing back above $2000 again with a few days. Continue reading "Are Technology And FANG Stocks Bottoming?" →

Gold Struggles While Silver Doesn't

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

In this post, I will take a deep dive into the chart structure of the precious metals as prices approach crucial triggers but on the opposite sides of each metal.

Let’s start with gold as it struggles to gain a foothold above $1200.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Pullback

Gold Struggles
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The votes were split almost evenly in the poll in my earlier post about the gold’s outlook. Half of the readers chose the trigger of the upside resistance at the $1218 and the rest thought that the market would drop to retest the $1122. The metal price then was just a little bit lower than these days at the $1186.

Almost one month has passed since then, and to my surprise, none of the triggers were pulled although we were very close to the $1218 point, the market couldn’t push above the $1214 at the end of the August and then retreated below $1200. This month we could see the increasing activity as investors are back from their summer holidays. There was another attempt to clear the resistance last week, but it stalled at the $1213 and the significant level again remained untouched. Continue reading "Gold Struggles While Silver Doesn't" →

Gold & Silver: Hard Ground or Quicksand?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

I know that most of the readers don’t like when I post bearish outlooks for the top metals as even if there are dozens of downloads, still nobody pushes the “like” button. It could be a fascinating research subject for behavioral finance or at least an excellent contrarian indicator.

Frankly speaking, I keep an unbiased stance and share my view of the structures that develop in the market. I just read signals that the market sends us all the time. From the start of the year, there are totally bearish outlooks were posted as we had strong signs in the charts and we can see that they proved to be right and one could make good money.

In this post I would like to address the question that arises these days, is this recent bounce a reversal or just another correction?

Let’s start with gold.

Gold Weekly Chart: Market Eyes $1122 To Complete The Structure

Gold Weekly Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Before we start I recommend that you check out this earlier gold chart to see the price and triggers’ position before the drop and signals, which I outlined in that post to refresh your memory as more than six months passed. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Hard Ground or Quicksand?" →