Crude Production Steady In January 2021

The Energy Information Administration reported that January crude oil production fell by 21,000 barrels per day, averaging 11.080 mmbd. This follows a dip of 67,000 b/d in December.

Monthly US Crude Production

Drops in crude production were experienced in North Dakota (45,000 b/d), Oklahoma (11,000), and in the US Gulf Coast (11,000). But output in Texas rose by 25,000 b/d. Continue reading "Crude Production Steady In January 2021"

Options: Annualizing Pandemic Lows

Annualizing the pandemic with an agile options-based approach has demonstrated superior returns while mitigating risk. Over the past 12 months, generating consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing return on capital has been the core of this options-based strategy. Options enable smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. Options allow one to generate consistent monthly income in a high probability manner in all market scenarios. Over the past 12 months (April 2020 – March 2021), 249 trades were placed and closed. A win rate of 98% was achieved with an average ROI per winning trade of 8.0% and an overall premium capture of 85% while outperforming the S&P 500. An options-based portfolio's performance demonstrates the durability and resiliency of options trading to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk. The options-based approach circumvented September 2020, October 2020, and January 2021 sell-offs while outperforming the S&P 500 over the post-pandemic bull run, posting returns of 55.0% and 53.7%, respectively (Figures 1, 2, and 3).

Options
Figure 1 – Overall options-based performance compared to the S&P 500 from April 2020 – March 2021
Continue reading "Options: Annualizing Pandemic Lows"

Play The Current Housing Boom With ETFs

Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that the housing industry is booming. Inventory is low, and prices are high! Over asking is now a standard term and contingency waivers are the only way you win those bidding wars with other buyers. Oh, and not to mention, if you find a house for sale, you better see it the first day it is listed, or you can forget about ever getting a chance because the number of days on the market is essentially zero at this point.

So how can you invest in this market without having to deal with this headache of a situation and risk overpaying for an asset class that historically only goes up 2% year-over-year?

Enter the world of Exchange Traded Funds!

There are several Exchange Traded Funds that you can buy today that will give you access to the businesses that are not only performing well right now but are still drooling at the current prospects that lay in front of them. In particular, the home builders. Continue reading "Play The Current Housing Boom With ETFs"

Bitcoin, Dollar, Gold And Silver Update

As Bitcoin matures, the chart structure becomes more readable over time. We can see how such a conventional indicator as a moving average perfectly supports the price. I added a 55-day (Fibonacci number) moving average (green), which at least three times this year kept the price in the bullish mode that started last October when the price crossed this line to the upside.

Another popular indicator RSI has perfectly detected the Bearish Divergence and pushed the price down last month. After that, it moved back above the crucial 50 level, which supported the current upward move.

Daily Bitcoin Chart

I see possible AB/CD segments in the chart (blue labels). The BC consolidation was huge and complicated, but it could be over now. If the CD segment travels the same distance as the AB part, then the price of Bitcoin could hit the new all-time high of $80,000. The projection of the black trendline resistance confirms that ambitious target, and we know how powerful the trends are. Continue reading "Bitcoin, Dollar, Gold And Silver Update"

Will The Futures Market Start To Rally?

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the May contract is currently trading higher by 20 points at 111.20 in a very quiet non-volatile trading manor this Thursday in New York.

At the present time, volatility has come to a crawl because prices historically speaking are depressed as we continually bounce off the critical 110 level, as it certainly looks to me that a bottoming out pattern is at hand. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 110 level. If you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the multi-year low standing at 90 as an exit strategy as we're awaiting some fresh fundamental news to put some volatility back into this commodity.

Juice prices have gone nowhere over the last six weeks, continually bouncing around as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as this was a counter-trend recommendation. I still believe the risk/reward is in your favor to the upside as the downside in price is limited, in my opinion.

I also have bullish recommendations in coffee and cotton as I think the commodity market downturn over the last several weeks is overextended. I think we will start to rally, especially with all the quantitative easing that the federal government continues to create, which should be a supportive factor just like it was in 2011, so stay long.

TREND: MIXED - LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the May contract are currently trading up 12 points at 14.89 a pound as prices continue their short-term bearish momentum this week as we're hovering right near a three-month low.

I'm sitting on the sidelines looking to be a buyer soon. I think the downside will be limited at these depressed prices, with the major support standing at 14.50, which could be touched this week. You also have to remember we are closed on Friday due to the Good Friday holiday as it will be a shortened trading week. Continue reading "Will The Futures Market Start To Rally?"