Copper Trade: Stopped Out

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

A month ago I got the short entry trigger in the copper futures. The idea started to emerge this February, and I was watching copper closely from that time and posted updates for you. And you witnessed how I moved entry triggers higher and higher until the price has finally pushed below the last one. And this was the true benefit of avoiding simple guessing to wait for the signal.

In the chart below I would like to show you how that trade was managed and what the outcome was.

Copper Futures Daily Chart: Walked Away Without A Scratch

price of copper
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The price of copper showed great volatility around the entry level (blue line) moving within a 10 cent range between $2.87 and $2.97. This happens due to a clash of opposite market forces at the extreme levels. Finally, the bears took the ball and pushed the price not only below the range but also below the crucial orange trendline support. Copper has hit the one month low at the $2.8345 on the 25th of March. At that stage, the short position had a profit of 3%, and I moved the stop to breakeven to enjoy the safe ride. This is a part of trade management as we should try to avoid risks as much as we can because we cannot control the market; we can only control ourselves and manage our risk. Continue reading "Copper Trade: Stopped Out" →

Round 2: Trump Vs. OPEC

Posted on by Robert Boslego

With oil prices having staged a recovery during the first quarter of 2019, primarily due to the withholding of oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, President Trump has once again entered the oil market as a threat. Not since OPEC’s founding in 1960 has an American president been as vocal or involved as Trump.

Trump’s intervention in “Round 1,” summarized below, shocked the market, causing a massive price collapse. However, with close scrutiny of the president’s views, both before taking office and over the past year, the market should not have been so surprised.

Saudi Arabia is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it needs oil prices in the $80s to support it's country’s budget, even if lifting costs are $10 or less. It also knows that a “high price” is not the best price longer-term, due to cutbacks in demand and the increasing availability of substitutes, such as U.S. shale.

But possibly most importantly, it depends on the U.S. for its security. And looking forward, it wants U.S. investment to help diversify its economy as the oil age wanes.

Simply put, it cannot afford to ignore this U.S. president, whose first international trip was to KSA. There is an important political and economic link to the U.S. that it did not have even one president ago (Obama). And its arch-nemesis, Iran, at the same time is being severely harassed by President Trump. Continue reading "Round 2: Trump Vs. OPEC" →

High-Probability Options Trading Thrives

Posted on by The INO.com Team

131 wins out of 151 trades later, through the Q4 2018 bear market and the Q1 2019 bull market, high-probability options trading thrives regardless of the market backdrop. Options trading is powerful because you can be wrong about the direction of a stock and still make money. Hence how I was able to achieve an 87% success rate as the market witnessed dramatic moves over the past 6 months. In Q4 2018, the S&P 500 sold off 14% and erased all of its gains for the year. The start to 2019 posted its best January in over 30 years and rounding out the quarter with a return of ~12.7%. In this article, I’ll be discussing how options trading can generate consistent income with a high-probability of success, regardless of market conditions. This is accomplished since options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go. Following the options trading framework described in this article, my options-based portfolio resulted in a total portfolio return of 4.2% against the S&P 500 return of -3.1% over the previous 6 months. This timeframe provided both bear and bull market conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness and resiliency of options trading while outperforming the broader index by a wide margin. This seesaw from a negative to a positive market backdrop provided unique opportunities to capitalize on options trading. In Q4 2018, during the bear market, I was able to achieve a 79% options success rate by closing 66 out of 84 option contracts for wins. In Q1, during the bull market, I was able to achieve a 97% options success rate by closing 65 out of 67 option contracts for wins. Taken together, options provide a margin of safety, enabling your portfolio to mitigate risk, provide consistent income and hedge against market volatility. Options have a unique attribute since you can still be successful while generating income even if you’re wrong about the direction of the stock. Continue reading "High-Probability Options Trading Thrives" →

Stocks End Week Higher On Positive Jobs Report

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The news was delivered Friday with better-than-expected U.S. jobs report that eased market fears that the economy was slowing down. The DOW traded 30 points higher, the S&P 500 climbed .35% as the energy and consumer discretionary sectors outperformed and the Nasdaq advanced 0.5% mid-day. On a weekly basis, the three major indexes performed extremely well posting weekly gains of +1.9%, 1.97%, and +2.6% respectively.

The U.S. economy added 196,000 jobs in March, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a print of 175,000. However, wage growth expanded 3.2%, below an expected gain of 3.4%.

posting a weekly gain

The U.S. dollar triggered a new green weekly Trade Triangle today at $97.45 once again pausing the Chart Analysis Score to +100 and butting up against a major level of support. The dollar has traded above the $97 level 13 times on a weekly level since October of 2018 but has been unable to break through $98 each time. Will the recent push higher give the dollar a different result? Continue reading "Stocks End Week Higher On Positive Jobs Report" →

Bitcoin And The DOW Join The Party

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. Well, it finally happened. Both Bitcoin and the DOW joined the party by issuing new green monthly Trade Triangles to kick off April. The DOW was first by triggering it's new green monthly Trade Triangle on Monday when it experienced a +1.27% gain or 329 pts on the day. Not to be outdone, Bitcoin made a HUGE move on Tuesday gaining 899 pts and +21.5% closing above $5,000 for the first time since Nov. 18th of 2018.

Bitcoin had been stuck between $3,500 and $3,800 for three months, but once it broke through the $4,000 wall, it appears that the Bitcoin bulls came calling. Bitcoin volume on the Binance exchange hit an all-time high on Tuesday—buying begetting more buying. However, Reuters also points to a single "mystery order" for $100 million worth of bitcoin, spread across multiple exchanges including Coinbase and Kraken, identified by U.K. crypto broker BCB Group. It will be interesting to see if this momentum can keep up or if this was an isolated incident brought on by that one big order. Make sure you keep a close eye on your stops.

Bitcoin

Now that the DOW has joined the party it's all systems go. The DOW is now trading back at levels we last saw in early November of 2018. This will mark the third time that the DOW has tested resistance at these levels. Will the third time be the Charm? Is the DOW setup to head higher? Continue reading "Bitcoin And The DOW Join The Party" →