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S&P 500 Consolidates, Is Another Drop Ahead

Posted on February 20, 2018February 19, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

In this post, I will share with you two maps as the S&P 500 consolidates to address two questions that are probably on your mind these days. The first is related to the long-term trend, shall we consider that significant ten percent drop that started at the end of January as a threshold for the long-term Bear Face? And the second question is related to the current situation, will this robust recovery continue further?

Let’s be diligent and answer those questions one by one.

Chart 1. S&P 500 Monthly: Consolidation Not A Reversal Yet

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

First of all, I would like to draw your attention to the black long-term trendline support, which starts post Great Recession period. The S&P 500 is far above this trigger, and I guess that even the current consolidation could hardly reach it. So, for the long term Bear Face to start sellers should push the index below that trendline, which currently sits at the $2100 mark. As this is not the case now, there is no reason for panic then. Continue reading "S&P 500 Consolidates, Is Another Drop Ahead" →

No Bitcoin ETF Yet, But There Are Blockchain ETFs

Posted on February 17, 2018February 14, 2018 by Matt Thalman

While the Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to approve an actual Bitcoin ETF, it is allowing investors to buy shares of ETF’s which are focused on the technology which makes cryptocurrencies tick, the blockchain.

After the explosion of Bitcoin back in the fall when the price of one coin jumped from around $4,000 to over $19,000, a number of different companies began clamoring to get involved in cryptocurrencies directly or just in the blockchain technology, and that is where these Exchange Traded Funds are focused. The thinking is that while you may not want to invest directly in a cryptocurrency, you may still want exposure to it through the businesses that help it operate.

For example, you could buy Square Inc. (SQ), the payment processing company that a few weeks ago announced it would now allow customers to pay with Bitcoin. Or perhaps it is through a less direct method of buying shares of NVIDIA (NVDA), the semiconductor company, which produces the microprocessors that are needed to make cryptocurrencies a reality. Or lastly, perhaps it just a previous beverage company, Long Island Iced Tea Corp. that now wants to get into blockchain and changes its name out of the blue to Long Blockchain Corp. (LBCC).

The first blockchain ETF to hit the market was Continue reading "No Bitcoin ETF Yet, But There Are Blockchain ETFs" →

Inflation - Getting Back To Normal

Posted on February 16, 2018February 15, 2018 by George Yacik

So now, suddenly, out of nowhere, inflation has reared its ugly head, and the financial markets are starting to believe it.

On Wednesday the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index rose a higher than expected 0.5% in January, 2.1% compared to the year-earlier period. The all-important core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, 1.8% versus a year ago. While not exactly hitting the Federal Reserve’s revered 2.0% annual inflation target, it was apparently close enough to create more jitters in the bond market, with the yield on the U.S. Treasury’s benchmark 10-year note immediately climbing seven basis points to 2.91%, its highest level in more than four years.

The very next day, Labor reported that the core producer price index rose 0.4% for the month and 2.2% year-on-year, which pushed up the yield on the 10-year another basis point, to 2.92%.

I’m not exactly sure why this recent surge in inflation should come as such a big surprise to anyone, but it surely has, witness the tremendous amount of volatility in the financial markets in just the past two weeks. The tipping point seems to have been the release of the January jobs report, the highlight of which wasn’t the change in nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, which they usually are, but the 0.3% (2.9% annualized) growth in wages, which was the strongest year-over-year gain since June 2009.

That seemed to finally catch everyone’s attention that yes, contrary to what the Fed has been telling us for the past four years, inflation really does exist. Now we have more verification. And it’s probably only going to exacerbate.

And who do we have to thank for this new-found inflation? Continue reading "Inflation - Getting Back To Normal" →

2018: Supply/Demand Trends Can Make Or Break Oil Prices

Posted on February 13, 2018 by Robert Boslego

The crude oil price started the year off strong, as January posted the highest OPEC Reference Basket price ($66.85) since November 2014, the month in which the Saudis decided to wage an oil price war with American shale oil. But the market gave up its 2018 gain during the first week of January, as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) incorporated the huge November production surge into its short-term outlook and weekly time series data. To top it all off, Baker-Hughes reported the most significant one-week gain in its oil-directed drilling rig count.

Whether the market shifts back to bullish sentiment, or whether the bearish sentiment takes control this year, depends mainly on several key assumptions. The central hypothesis is how fast shale oil production will grow this year, and the second is what OPEC production will be, given the on-going risk to Venezuelan output. Based on U.S. production from August through November, the recent lagged response in drilling rigs, and the high prices experienced October through January; I expect that U.S. production will rise faster than either the DOE or OPEC assume in their forecasts.

EIA’s February Outlook

The EIA released its outlook, revising its U.S. crude production estimates much higher. For the year, it now expects crude production to average 10.59 million barrels per day (mmbd) in 2018, and to exit the year at 11.13 mmbd.

The EIA’s estimate of production for February is 10.260 mmbd. That figure is 1.07 mmbd higher than August. If anything, EIA’s 2018 prediction seems low. Continue reading "2018: Supply/Demand Trends Can Make Or Break Oil Prices" →

Gold Failed And Silver Is On The Edge

Posted on February 12, 2018February 12, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

As promised in my earlier post I updated the silver chart for you in this post as I spotted some exciting patterns forming on the chart below. But first, I would like to start with the stronger of the two metals, gold.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Couldn’t Tag Previous Top