Is The Chinese Economy A Predictor For The U.S.?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The Coronavirus originated in and hit China first, so it should be expected that the Chinese economy could be used and will be used as a predictor for the U.S. economy moving forward. After all, we are talking about the two largest economies in the world.

Since the mid-1970s, the Chinese economy has had more than four decades of unbroken gains, an incredible run, increasing its domestic economy by roughly a hundredfold and transforming the global economy in the process.

But that winning streak came to a sudden and shocking end Friday. China reported a -6.8% year-over-year contraction in its economy for the first three months of 2020. That's the first quarterly decline in the gross domestic product since official record-keeping began in 1992 and likely the first since Mao Zedong died in 1976.

That should be quite a warning to the U.S., especially after U.S. retail sales Continue reading "Is The Chinese Economy A Predictor For The U.S.?" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2020

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for April, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.802 billion barrels. It estimated stocks built by 109 million barrels in March to end at 3.059 billion, 201 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For 2020, OECD inventories are projected to build by 468 million barrels to 3.351 billion. For 2021 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 207 million barrels to end the year at 3.144 billion.

OECD Global Oil Inventories

The EIA forecast was made prior to the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, April 2020" →

Now May Be The Best Time To Invest In China

Posted on by Matt Thalman

The current COVID-19 pandemic that has halted world economic activity began back in December of 2019 in the country of China. For weeks the world watched as the Chinese government dealt with the viral outbreak. Some called the Chinese government's decision to 'lock-down' the city of Wuhan in the Hubei province and other major cities that were experiencing growing COVID-19 case rates as 'draconian.'

The spread of the virus slowed in China due to the 'extreme' measures they took, but pandora's box had been opened, and the virus had spread throughout the world. At this time, most of China is back to normal in terms of businesses being open, workers returning to factories, and most of the country no longer being in a lock-down situation. However, the lock-downs in China started on January 23rd, and Wuhan, for example, is still under strict movement rules.

In comparison, most European countries, the U.S., and other developed nations just went into 'restricted movement orders' in the last week of March. So, in those terms, China is two months ahead of the rest of the world in terms of fighting this disease and slowing economic activity as a form of fighting the spread of the disease. That also means they are likely two months ahead of the world in terms of when it comes to 'getting back to normal' or getting the economy back up and running.

So, since China is 'ahead' of everyone else, we could induce that some Chinese companies, mainly those who serve the Chinese people, will start to perform better financially, sooner than other companies around the world. This leads to the potential investment opportunity that is currently presenting itself in China, while the rest of the world is in a holding pattern waiting for the second shoe to fall before, they put more money to work in the markets.

So, let's take a look at a few ETFs that you can invest in today, which will give you exposure to the Chinese economy, and potentially a Continue reading "Now May Be The Best Time To Invest In China" →

Silver Is A Game Changer

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last month I shared with you “Three Options To Go” for silver price, namely “Optimistic”, “Pessimistic” and the sideways option called “Extended consolidation” on one chart. Below are your bets for each option.

Silver

Most of you chose the “Optimistic” option where silver should continue to the upside after completing the correction. It’s a rare case when the minority was right as the “Pessimistic” scenario played out the next week after the post. The metal’s price dropped into the abyss at $11.64, reaching the 11-year low in the price area of distant January 2009. I think this move surprised not only me, although I said that it could reach $11 area, but even those who clicked the right answer as it was so quick as price sank within a few weeks from $16.66 for 30%!!!

Silver just can’t stop surprising us as it suddenly changes from latency mode to explosion mode and back, again and again.

The interesting thing happened next Continue reading "Silver Is A Game Changer" →

Gold Miners Show The Way

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

[edit] It goes without saying that gold miners and the royalty companies that live off them will be shown to have been impaired like many other companies by the coming Q2 numbers due to shutdowns. An emailer questioned my view on this and it has been one of my personal caution points. Markets should be looking ahead, but during this euphoric sentiment release across broad markets maybe they’re overlooking some things. The other caution point is that a big bullish expression on the heels of the Fed announcement is also a setup for short-term disappointment. So with respect to the daily chart below, maybe Friday’s gap will fill after all. But as noted in the article below “the gold stocks lead and their fundamentals and value proposition will have improved by leaps and bounds as we exit the COVID-19 global lockdown”.

It’s a good Friday because I get to start my weekend work earlier. Many people temporarily have no weekends because they are huddled at home as one day bleeds into the next amid the global pandemic. Monday is Thursday is Saturday. Good Friday is Halloween is Festivus.

But when times are normal I have no weekends, working 7 days and most intensely on the weekends (with more freedom than the average worker on weekdays). When times are abnormal like now, I work hard on weekends but the more intense days are during the week. As one subscriber put it:

“What a wild ride lately… Thanks for busting your ass for us all lately. As always, you’re the only reason I can handle being in this game.”  -Tom A  3.25.20

That was in reference to the massive amount of in-week effort we (I write “we” because it takes effort to be an NFTRH subscriber because they are tasked to work, not just receive instructions from some clown dressed as a guru) put in to manage volatile markets with formal subscriber updates and in particular, more dynamic in-day updates (with charts as needed) at the Trade Log Notes page. I believe you must be at your best and most interactive when most needed, especially during a crisis, not sitting on autopilot hoping no one notices.

When you’ve got a tiger by the tail you may not know exactly how it is going to react but you sure as hell don’t let go! Continue reading "Gold Miners Show The Way" →