Election Year Cycles - What To Expect

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Every election year over the past five US Presidential election cycles has presented a unique set of price rotation events. Particularly evident in strongly contested US Presidential candidate battles where the voters are consumed with pre-election rhetoric. The 2007-08 election cycle was, in our opinion, very similar to the current market cycle in terms of consumer sentiment and economic function. The 2015-16 election cycle was less similar, yet still important for our researchers.

The economic conditions of the US economy and the global economy were vastly different prior to each US Presidential election cycle and continue to evolve throughout the current 2020 election cycle. Yet, our researchers believe the correlation of price volatility and rotation combined with the distraction for consumers as the election process occupies the hearts and minds of almost everyone across the globe takes a toll on the markets. Prior to almost any US Presidential, price volatility and trends tend to become much more exaggerated and extended.

We’ve published research articles about this technical setup/pattern that occurs in the markets nearly 8 to 15+ months before the US Presidential election cycle before. The basic theory of the setup/pattern is as follows…

  • 12+ months prior to the election date, the parties consolidate around specific candidates where the first battles of the US presidential election cycle conclude.
  • Over the next 12 months, the battle between the selected candidates becomes more heated and aggressive as voters are pushed information and disinformation related to their decisions.
  • The process of the election and the decision-making process for consumers/voters is very stressful and distracts from the normal economic activity for many. This distraction translates into an indecisive market where future expectations (optimism and pessimism) greatly depend on the outcome of the election. Thus, the markets are stuck in a “no man’s land” type of “stasis” waiting for the election event to conclude.

Depending on the events that lead up to the election date, the stock market could be biased towards a bullish trend or a bearish trend which can have a big impact on the pre and post-election outcomes.

S&P 500 Index 2006-09 US Presidential Election Cycle

Let's start by taking a look at the 2006-09 (2008 US election cycle) data/chart. Continue reading "Election Year Cycles - What To Expect" →

Are Palladium, Gold And Silver Set To Takeoff?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

In this post, I'll go over the charts for palladium, gold and silver, but first I would like to start with palladium futures as it has the most potential gain to reach this round. At the start of May, I shared with you the map with equal opportunities for this champion metal to either break up or down. Here is how you saw the future for palladium in the graph below.

Palladium Poll

The majority chose the “break down” option, although with a minor advantage, but this bet played out as the metal’s price dipped one more time in the third leg down of a large correction. You were right again!

Now, let’s get down to the hot opportunity that I spotted for you on the palladium futures daily chart as it’s worth watching on the Gold & Silver Primetime.

Palladium Gold Silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The chart structure of palladium futures on the daily time frame could indeed be posted in the trading textbook as it is neat and smooth. I put detailed explanations here and on the chart as this metal gives such an excellent opportunity for education. Continue reading "Are Palladium, Gold And Silver Set To Takeoff?" →

U.S. Crude Inventories Continue To Climb

Posted on by Robert Boslego

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude inventories (excluding SPR) built by 14.9 million barrels last week to 1.415 billion, whereas SPR stock built by 2.1 million. They stand 129 mmb above the rising, rolling 5-year average and about 129 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 356 mmb above that average.

Oil Stocks

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.400 mmbd last week, down 100,000 b/d from the prior week, and 11.600 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 4.9 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 12.580 mmbd, up 4.2 % v. last year, about 500,000 barrels per day higher than a year ago. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Inventories Continue To Climb" →

COVID-19 - An Agile Options Strategy - Part 2

Posted on by The INO.com Team

COVID-19 was the black swan event that culminated in bringing the worldwide economy to its knees. The spread of the virus globally, along with intermittent spikes, has crushed stocks and decimated entire industries such as airlines, casinos, travel, leisure, and retail while others are battling to remain in business. COVID-19 was the linchpin for the major indices to drop over 30% over the course of 22 days. This COVID-19 induced sell-off has been the worst since the Great Depression in terms of breadth and velocity of the sell-off while inducing extreme market volatility that hasn’t been seen since the Financial Crisis.

Although options trading provides a margin of downside protection and a statistical edge, when hit with a black swan event, no portfolio is immune from the wreckage. Thus, proper portfolio construction and optimal risk management are essential when engaging in options trading to drive portfolio results. One of the main pillars when building an options-based portfolio is maintaining ample liquidity via holding ~50% of one’s portfolio in cash. This liquidity position provides the ability to adjust when faced with extreme market conditions such as COVID-19 rapidly. An agile options based portfolio is essential, and the COVID-19 pandemic is a prime example of why maintaining liquidity, risk-defining trades, staggering options expiration dates, trading across a wide array of uncorrelated tickers, maximizing the number of trades and selling options to collect premium income are keys to an effective long-term options strategy.

Maximizing Return on Capital

Options can be sold with defined risk while leveraging a minimal amount of capital to maximize return on investment. Whether you have a small account or a Continue reading "COVID-19 - An Agile Options Strategy - Part 2" →

Crude Oil Has Best Month EVER

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Crude oil just posted its best month ever after suffering its worst month ever, not that long ago. Crude oil in the July contract posted a monthly gain of +57%! Yes, you read that right, +57%, pushing the price of oil above $35 a barrel. It wasn't all that long ago that many traders learned that oil and futures could indeed trade in negative territory. Quite a turnaround, but will it continue?

As for stocks, the major indexes ended the week mixed on a daily level after President Donald Trump signaled no changes to the trade deal with China despite rising tensions in his Friday afternoon press conference form the White House rose garden. But on a weekly level, all three indexes posted weekly gains. The S&P 500 gained +3%, the DOW +3.7%, and the NASDAQ had a weekly increase of +1.7%.

As for May, all three indexes had gained Continue reading "Crude Oil Has Best Month EVER" →