Gold & Silver: The Calm Before The Storm

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In September I warned you about the possible weakness in both gold and silver after a good rally as strong reverse signals appeared on the chart. That warning alert paid well as the metals dropped heavily – gold lost more than 7%, and silver fell more than 10%. I hope it helped those of you who had market exposure that time.

There are updated charts below with further price action forecast, which is based on pattern recognition and market staging approach. I hope my detailed graphs with annotations will help you understand market behavior, training your eyes to recognize patterns and determine market stages with me.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: The Baby Bird Could Fall Out Of The Nest

Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

In the previous gold chart I put two zigzags to show you possible paths for further price action, the red zigzag was the main option, it showed the downside move with a small consolidation inside. In reality, the drop has been even sharper with just a minor correction within. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: The Calm Before The Storm" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,274 an ounce while currently trading at 1,284 up about $10 for the trading week and right near a four week high. I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 1,290 while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 1,269 risking $2,100 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding due to very low volatility. Gold prices are trading above their 20 & 100-day moving averages as the trend is to the upside and I am also looking at entering into a bullish silver position as the U.S. dollar is near a four week low helping push prices up here in the short term. Gold prices have gone nowhere over the last month or so with extremely low volatility, and I don't think that's going to last much longer so keep a close eye on this market to the upside. If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I am bullish the commodity markets as they are very cheap compared to the U.S. stock market and I think the volatility will be to the upside not to the downside as demand will start coming back into these products.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Stocks Dip On Tax Reform Concerns

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. Tax Reform has taken center stage this week as the House approved its version of the legislation. We now wait on the Senate who is still debating its own plan.

I feel like the market is uncertain about the tax bill's ability to move to the next stage of approval, thus letting some volatility enter the picture as indicated by the VIX and the recent market action over the past few days. The VIX hit it's highest level since August.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

Elsewhere, bitcoin is hovering just under $8000. Crude oil jumped to $56 a barrel as Saudi Arabia, and OPEC moved to dispel doubts over Russia's readiness to extend output curbs. The Japanese yen gained the most in more than two months against the dollar and the emerging market shares headed for the highest close in six years.

Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Stocks Dip On Tax Reform Concerns" →

Copper Update: 1-Year After The Election Of Donald Trump

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


American Dream

One year has passed since President Donald Trump was elected to office. That month I wrote a post about copper’s ultimate monthly performance compared to other commodities thanks to the new president’s promises of huge infrastructure rebuilding.

Below is a 1-year performance chart of copper to see how the metal has been doing since Election Day.

Chart 1. 1-Year (from November 8th, 2016) Copper Performance

Cooper Performance One Year
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Cooper gained a hefty 25% for the period with a peak of around 33% that it hit last month. In the post-election months copper exploded to the upside, but then the euphoria in the market was changed with profit taking erasing earlier gains. Continue reading "Copper Update: 1-Year After The Election Of Donald Trump" →

Oil Price Surge May Become OPEC's Worst Enemy

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Crude prices bottomed in the current price cycle during the third week of June. Subsequently, there has been a surge to the highest crude prices in two years. My theory is that the market has priced-in a geopolitical risk premium given the de-certification of the Iran nuclear deal by President Trump as signaled by the White House on October 5th.

Another factor has emerged. It has become increasingly clear that the DOE’s estimates of weekly U.S. crude production have overestimated the actual monthly figures, as reported two months in arrears. The errors since April have been large. Some have concluded that American shale oil production is not as big of a countermeasure to rising oil prices as had been believed.
Continue reading "Oil Price Surge May Become OPEC's Worst Enemy" →